*
US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in September,
exceeding
expectations
*
Expectations for another 50 bps rate cut in November
decrease
(Updated at 2:40 p.m. ET/1840 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury
yields rose on Wednesday after economic data pointed to a stable
labor market while investors monitored escalating Middle East
hostilities after Iran fired missiles against Israel.
U.S. private payrolls increased by a more than expected
143,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP National
Employment Report, above the 120,000 estimate of economists
polled by Reuters, adding to signs the labor market may not be
cooling as fast as some initial concerns.
Yields had moved sharply lower in the prior session as Iran
launched more than 180 missiles against Israel in an escalation
of tensions in the region.
On Wednesday, Israel said eight of its soldiers were killed
in combat in south Lebanon as its forces moved into its northern
neighbor in a campaign against the Hezbollah armed group.
The U.S. data comes ahead of the release on Friday of the
government's more comprehensive employment report for September.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank
officials have signaled the Fed's primary focus has shifted from
combating inflation to ensuring a stable labor market.
The Fed kicked off its rate cut cycle in September with a
big 50 basis point reduction.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 4
basis points at 3.783%. The yield has fallen for five straight
months, including a third-quarter drop of more than 50 basis
points as investors have anticipated an easier monetary policy
from the Fed.
"The one thing to keep in mind is we'd had a rip-roaring
rally, in reaction to what has been a handful of months of
slower data, moderating inflation, that got capped with the Fed
cutting interest rates 50 basis points," said Robert Tipp, chief
Investment Strategist and head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed
Income in Newark, New Jersey.
"This market had come a long way very fast and yesterday's
geopolitical risk took down another rung but given 12 hours to
think about it and nothing more grave developing set the markets
up to get back some of the rally.
"With a mild-upside surprise on ADP it's giving the market
some natural pause here, to reflect on whether it's overreacted
to all the bullish data of recent weeks and months."
Richmond Fed President Thomas
Barkin said
the central bank's cut in September was an acknowledgement
that its policy rate was "out of sync" with where the economy
stands, but shouldn't be seen as a sign the battle with
inflation is finished.
Expectations for another cut of 50 bps at the November
meeting have been decreasing recently, with markets pricing in a
34.7% chance, down from 57.4% a week ago, according to CME's
FedWatch Tool.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 5.2
bps to 4.133%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 14.6 bps.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, edged up 1.4 bps
at 3.635%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.13%, after closing at 2.097% on Tuesday, its highest close
since July 31.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.217%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging 2.2% a
year for the next decade.