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Stephen Miran nominated to Federal Reserve board
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JPMorgan pulls forward Fed cut expectation
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September Fed cut expectations near 90%
(Updates to afternoon US trading)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, with that of the
benchmark 10-year note set for its first weekly gain in three
weeks after a series of lackluster auctions ahead of next week's
inflation data.
Yields have been choppy throughout the week, moving lower on
economic data that indicated little movement in the labor
market, while a services sector report hinted at a rekindling of
inflationary pressures. Yields turned higher later in the
session as the Treasury saw weak demand for a total of $125
billion in 3-year notes, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds.
The 10-year yield recorded its biggest weekly drop in two
months last week, after a soft government payrolls report
sharply increased expectations on the timing and amount of rate
cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
Data next week will include multiple readings on inflation,
including the consumer price index (CPI), which will heavily
influence rate expectations for the central bank.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield
rose 3.9 basis points to 4.283% and was up 6.5 basis points on
the week, on track for its biggest weekly gain since early July.
"We probably came down as far as we're likely to, unless we
get really much weaker data, and so our call is we stall at
4.25%, said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital
Management in New York.
"It's normal for this to back up, because we don't know
what CPI is going to be," said Hatfield, who also cited the
uncertainty surrounding the makeup of the Federal Reserve board
of governors.
The yield on the 30-year bond rose 4.1 basis
points to 4.853% and was up 4.9 basis points on the week after
two straight weekly declines.
RATE EXPECTATIONS
Expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by
the Fed at its September meeting stand at 89.4%, according to
CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 80.3% a week ago. According to LSEG
data, the market is pricing in 58.3 basis points of cuts by the
end of the year.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday the
Fed's inflation and jobs goals both face risks, with
policymakers needing to balance which seems the more serious
threat in deciding whether it is appropriate to reduce rates.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
, seen as an indicator of economic expectations,
was at a positive 52.5 basis points.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said he will
nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to
serve out the final few months of a newly vacant seat at the Fed
while the White House seeks a permanent addition to the central
bank's governing board and continues its search for a new Fed
chair.
Miran is replacing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who
announced a surprise resignation last week, effective on Friday.
In a note to clients, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael
Feroli said he now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25
basis points at its September meeting, citing signs of weakness
in the labor market and uncertainty around Miran's nomination.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations,
advanced 2.2 basis points to 3.756% and was up 5.8 basis points
on the week, on pace for its biggest weekly gain since the week
ending July 3.