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TREASURIES-US yields climb as markets in consolidation mode ahead of Fed speakers
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TREASURIES-US yields climb as markets in consolidation mode ahead of Fed speakers
Jun 17, 2024 9:16 AM

NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose

on Monday after falling sharply last week, as investors

consolidated positions ahead of a slew of Federal Reserve

speakers over the next few days who could further clarify the

timing of the first interest rate cut this year.

U.S. two-year to 30-year yields advanced after declining for

four straight days.

Data showing the New York Fed's Empire State Current

Business Conditions index slipped less than expected to minus

6.0, from minus 15.6 the previous month helped extend the rise

in yields.

"The Empire State helped a little bit, but it's more than

that," said Stan Shipley, managing director and fixed income

strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. "Yields came down a lot

last week and so some people are taking profits here."

In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield rose

7.4 basis points (bps) to 4.286%. Last Friday, it

posted its biggest drop for the year after weaker-than-expected

economic data, led by lower import prices.

U.S. 30-year yields climbed 7.2 bps to 4.422%.

On the front end of the curve, the U.S. two-year yield was

up 6.3 bps at 4.748%.

The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, reduced its inversion on

Monday. The spread between U.S. two- and 10-year yields, widely

viewed as a predictor of economic recessions, was at minus 47

bps, compared with minus 48.6 bps late on Friday,

when the curve hit the most inverted since mid-March.

Analysts also said Treasury supply was likely a factor on

Monday, with $13 billion in U.S. 20-year bonds and $21 billion

in five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

Fed officials will also be a focus this week, with New York

Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker

and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook all speaking on Monday.

Bond investors will also looking at May U.S. retail sales

data on Tuesday, with industrial production, housing starts and

S&P flash PMI data among other key releases due later in the

week.

Fed funds futures have priced in a more than 60% chance of

easing in September, according to LSEG calculations, factoring

about two rate cuts for the year.

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