NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields moved
lower on Friday as the possibility of a supersized interest rate
cut by the Federal Reserve next week gained ground again.
Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said
on Thursday there was a strong case for a 50 basis point
interest rate cut at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 rate-setting meeting.
Market participants also mentioned news articles in the
Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, which highlighted
that the size of the first cut could be a close call for Fed
officials, as factors that spurred bets on a large cut next
week.
The probability of a 50 basis point cut rose to 51% on
Friday from 28% on Thursday, CME Group data showed.
Tony Farren, managing director in rates sales and trading at
Mischler Financial Group, said he was skeptical about the
repricing and expected yields to turn higher.
"I'm looking for the market to pull back here; I just don't
see the economic and inflation data justifying a 50 basis point
rate cut," he said.
Others echoed that view.
"We maintain that a quarter-point initial cut is the path of
least resistance, although it is clear that 50 bp is on the
table and will be part of the Fed's conversation," rates
strategists at BMO Capital Markets said in a note.
A release by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor
Statistics showed on Friday U.S. import prices dropped by the
most in eight months in August amid lower costs for fuels and
food products, suggesting domestic inflation will continue to
subside in the months ahead. Two-year yields declined briefly
after the data.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 3.662%,
down from 3.68% on Thursday. Two-year yields, more
closely linked to monetary policy expectations, declined to
3.578% from 3.648% on Thursday.
The curve comparing 10- and two-year yields,
which investors look at closely for its signals on the economic
outlook, widened to 8.7 basis points, the steepest it has been
since July 2022.