(Updates yields, adds details on auction, investor comments,
graphic)
By Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
declined slightly on Thursday after economic data showed a
continued, though moderate, slowdown in economic activity.
The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis
released estimates showing gross domestic product increased at a
revised 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, up from a previous
1.3% estimate. Real consumption growth was revised down to 1.5%
from 2%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending due to a
combination of high interest rates and sticky price pressures.
"The 1.4% reading is solid, but indicates that economic
growth is slowing, although still comfortably above recession
levels," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for
Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note. Growth was 3.4% in the
fourth quarter last year.
Data on Thursday also showed first-time applications for
U.S. unemployment benefits drifted lower last week, which could
assuage concerns over a material deterioration in the labor
market. At the same time, so-called continuing claims for
unemployment benefits increased 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted
1.839 million during the week ending June 15, the highest since
November 2021.
Benchmark 10-year yields, which move inversely
to prices, dropped after the data and were last at 4.288%, three
basis points lower than on Wednesday. Two-year yields
, which more closely indicate monetary policy
expectations, were also down about three points to 4.716%.
Yields edged lower also after a $44 billion seven-year
Treasury note auction, which saw solid investor demand. The
notes were sold at a high yield of 4.276%, slightly below the
expected rate at the time of the bid deadline, a sign that
investors were willing to pay up.
Still, Treasury yields remained overall in line with recent
levels, as investors weighed signs of the economy slowing
against a number of factors, including the rising U.S.
government debt burden, that could delay a much anticipated
shift by the Federal Reserve to a less restrictive stance.
"You can find weakness in a lot of economic data ... but
yields can't seem to break 4.2%," said Craig Brothers, senior
portfolio manager and head of fixed income at Bel Air Investment
Advisors, referring to 10-year bonds.
That was due to large amounts of debt supply, as well as the
slow decrease in inflationary pressures, he said. "As much as
the Fed wants everyone to feel great that we're making progress
towards their target of 2% (inflation), I don't think we're
going to get there very easily."
Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX, said
unless price pressures drop sharply over the coming months, the
Fed is unlikely to lower rates until December.
"I don't think this combination of data says deceleration
and the Fed is going to start cutting," she said.
Investors on Thursday were pricing for nearly two 25 basis
point rate cuts this year, but they will be looking for more
clues on the path of interest rates with the release of personal
consumption expenditure inflation data on Friday.
Also on investors' radars will be a face-off between U.S.
President Joe Biden and Republican former president Donald Trump
in a TV debate later on Thursday.
"If Trump does well ... (and) it becomes clearer that one
party is going to be able to control the presidency and the
Congress, then I think Treasury yields will probably move
higher," said Brij Khurana, fixed income portfolio manager at
Wellington Management.