NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
lower on Thursday after economic data showed a softening of the
labor market while a reading on inflation indicated price
pressures may be easing.
The Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) for
final demand dropped 0.2% last month after advancing by an
unrevised 0.5% in April, and below the 0.1% increase forecast by
economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through May, the
PPI increased 2.2% after rising 2.3% in April.
The data comes after a gauge of consumer prices (CPI) on
Wednesday was unchanged in May for the first time in almost two
years.
"When you look at today's PPI and yesterday's CPI, it's
unambiguously good news on the inflation front. Of course, one
report doesn't make a trend, but these are the sort of numbers
and reports we need to see to be convinced that inflation is
coming down, and for the Fed to be convinced that inflation is
coming down," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at the
Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York.
A separate reading of the labor market showed weekly initial
jobless claims climbed 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000,
a 10-month high, and above the 225,000 estimate.
"When you see the rise in initial jobless claims, that just
suggests that the labor market is coming more into balance, and
it suggests that growth should moderate a bit down the road,"
said Martin.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
shed 2.6 basis points to 4.269%.
Yields had dropped after the consumer price index report on
Wednesday but pared some declines after the Federal Reserve left
interest rates unchanged and pushed out the start of rate cuts
to perhaps as late as December.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 0.6 basis
points to 4.444%. The U.S. Treasury Department will sell $22
billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday in its final auction of the
week.
Market expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis
points at the Fed's September meeting stand at 67.7%, according
to CME's FedWatch Tool, up slightly from the 64.7% in the prior
session.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 42.8 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, declined 5.5
basis points to 4.695%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.171% after closing at 2.19% on June 12.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.217%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.