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By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Friday after data showed inflation in the world's largest
economy continued to ease, boosting the chances of an outsized
interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's November policy
meeting.
The benchmark 10-year yield slid 3.6 basis points to 3.76%
, while the two-year yield was down 3.1 bps to 3.591%
.
The yield curve briefly steepened after the data, with the
spread between two-year and 10-year yields hitting 17 bps
. It was last at 16.3 bps. A steeper curve
suggests more interest rate cuts are underway.
Data showed the personal consumption expenditures price
index, the Fed's favored inflation measure, rose 0.1% in August
after an unrevised 0.2% gain in July. Economists had forecast
PCE inflation rising 0.1%. In the 12 months through August, the
PCE price index increased 2.2% after rising 2.5% in July.
"Friday's ... PCE data increases the likelihood that the
Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at both the November and
December meetings, as this is yet another data point showing
that there is no need for interest rates to be so much higher
than the rate of inflation," Clark Bellin, president and chief
investment officer at Bellwether Wealth in emailed comments.
The U.S. rate futures market has priced in a 54% chance of a
50 basis points cut in November, up from about 49% before the
release of the data, according to LSEG calculations. The chances
of a 25 bps move slid to 46% after the inflation data.
For the next two meetings in November and December, the
futures market now expect nearly 80 bps in policy easing.