* US-Iran peace deal hopes drive oil prices lower
* Lower oil prices support Treasury yield decline
* Fed officials say inflation risks may delay rate cuts
* Initial jobless claims rise, but below expectations
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on
Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year note on track for a third
straight decline, as it tracked the recent drop in oil prices on
optimism that progress was being made on a peace deal in the
Iran war.
The United States and Iran are edging toward a limited,
temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials
said on Thursday, with a draft framework that would stop the
fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved.
U.S. crude fell 4.44% to $90.86 a barrel and Brent
fell to $96.91 per barrel, down 4.31% on the day,
although prices remained volatile.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
shed 1.8 basis points to 4.336% and was on pace
for a third straight daily decline, which would mark its longest
streak in nearly three months.
"The bond market's been remarkably quiet throughout this
process, and in fact has not sold off as much as you would have
expected, given the reduction in expected cuts, so therefore,
it's just (going to) grind lower rather than just rip lower if
we get a resolution," said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and
chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors in
New York.
"It just makes sense that we're on hold waiting for the
resolution of this proposal to Iran because it's really kind of
98% of the catalyst for the market over the next month,"
Hatfield said.
The yield on the 30-year bond slipped 0.7
basis point to 4.936%. The 30-year had hit 5.036% on Monday, its
highest since July 17.
Since the war began on February 28, yields have steadily
climbed as inflation worries dented market expectations for rate
cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 48.5 basis points.
JOBLESS CLAIMS EDGE HIGHER
On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims rose by
10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000, slightly below the
205,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The data was
the latest read on the labor market this week and comes ahead of
Friday's key government payrolls report.
Other Labor Department data showed nonfarm productivity
increased at a 0.8% annualized rate last quarter, below the 1.0%
estimate and down from the downwardly revised 1.6% rate in the
fourth quarter.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, fell 2.3 basis points to 3.849% after sliding to 3.824%,
its lowest since April 28.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack
reiterated that risks of higher inflation in the future argued
against the U.S. central bank holding on to its policy leaning
toward cutting rates at some point.
Other Fed officials scheduled to speak on Thursday included
Bank of New York President John Williams and Bank of Minneapolis
President Neel Kashkari.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.571% after closing at 2.591% on May 6.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.42%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4%
a year for the next decade.