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Government shutdown delays key labor data release
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ISM data adds evidence of sluggish labor market
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Fed officials show diverse views on interest rate path
By Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
marginally higher in thin trading on Friday, as the postponement
of key labor data because of the U.S. government shutdown left
the market without much directional conviction.
With the U.S. government shutting down on Wednesday after
lawmakers failed to reach a funding deal, the Labor Department
halted the release of a monthly jobs report, scheduled for
Friday, that was crucial for the Federal Reserve and for
investors to assess the health of the U.S. economy and the
direction of interest rates.
That left market participants scrambling to get a picture of
the economy, using alternative estimates and private surveys
released earlier this week that continued to point to a gradual
slowdown in the jobs market.
"We're stuck in a world where we have to live with the
private data and not the government data, and so that causes a
good deal of uncertainty around what we should be doing
directionally," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.
Riley Wealth.
The most-watched datapoint on Friday was the Institute for
Supply Management's release of the September Services Purchasing
Managers' Index (PMI). It showed services sector activity
stalled in September amid a slowdown in new orders, while
subdued employment added to evidence of sluggish labor market
conditions.
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, were not
much changed after the ISM data, except for a brief drop in
two-year yields.
Meanwhile, investors were also paying attention to comments
from Fed officials showing a diversity of views within the
central bank on the likely path of interest rates.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said he was
hesitant to commit to a series of interest rate cuts with
inflation still running above the central bank's 2% target. On
the other hand, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, a top economic
advisor to President Donald Trump, argued for much easier
monetary policy.
Rates futures traders on Friday were assigning a 97%
probability to a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed
later this month, CME Group data showed.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.113%,
about two basis points higher on the day, while two-year yields
stood at 3.568%, less than two points higher.
The uptick in yields on Friday morning was marginal, said
Hogan. "It's one of those weeks where you have to look at the
range versus the daily change in basis points, and the range
seems to be lower," he added.
Since the beginning of the shutdown, 10-year and two-year
yields have decreased by over three basis points.
Besides the uncertainty due to lack of official data,
the shutdown itself could reduce economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2
percentage point for every week the government is closed, S&P
Global Ratings Economics estimated.