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US 10-year, 2-year yields post biggest daily decline in 5
weeks
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Chicago PMI falls in December
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US 2/10 yield curve flattens modestly
(Adds new comment, graphics, updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Monday after last week's significant move higher, with that
of benchmark 10-year notes posting their biggest daily decline
in five weeks, as investors continued to funnel cash into the
bond market following Wall Street losses.
In afternoon trading, the U.S. 10-year yield dropped 7.2
basis points (bps) to 4.549%, its biggest one-day
decline since Nov. 25. On the short end of the curve, the
two-year yield eased 7.4 bps to 4.252%, also its
largest daily retreat in five weeks.
"The sell-off last week probably prompted people to take
profits," said Vinny Bleau, director, fixed income capital
markets, at Raymond James in Memphis.
"I think we had been oversold. We're in a little bit of
consolidation here: the psychological level of 4.50% is probably
where we settle in for a second," he added.
In other maturities, U.S. 30-year yields were down 4.3
bps to 4.768%.
Investors also continued to re-allocate to bonds amid a
sell-off in stocks.
"The bond market has somewhat taken its cue from what's
happening in the equities market," said Jim Barnes, director of
fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
"Investors did some profit taking in equities and maybe
re-deployed to fixed income. At this point, the bond market is
compelling given the recent rise in bond yields over the past
weeks."
Since hitting a roughly five-week low on Dec. 6, the
10-year Treasury yield has gained nearly 40 bps. Wall Street
shares, on the other hand, hit their lowest in more than a week
on Monday amid thin volume.
The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, flattened slightly,
with the spread between two- and 10-year yields at 28.9 bps
, compared with 29.5 bps late on Friday. The curve
had steepened to 30.3 bps on Friday, posting its widest gap
since June 2022.
Monday's modest flattening was viewed as a minor
correction from the steepening trend seen in the last few weeks.
Yield curves tend to be steeper in an easing cycle, with the
short end's rise under control.
Treasury yields also extended their fall after data showed
business activity in the U.S. Midwest fell this month.
The December reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers
Index was 36.9, down from 40.2 the month before. The consensus
forecast was for an increase to 42.8, according to a Reuters
poll.
"Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, there have
only been seven prints with a thirty handle for the Chicago PMI,
three of those were during the depths of the pandemic period,"
wrote Lou Brien, market strategist, at DRW trading in Chicago,
in emailed comments.
New orders fell 13.5 points to the second lowest since May
2020, according to the Chicago PMI release, as more than half of
respondents reported fewer new orders for the first time since
June 2020.
U.S. yields didn't really budge even after data showed
contracts to buy previously-owned homes in the United States
rose more than expected in November, notching a fourth straight
month of gains.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Monday
its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, rose
2.2% last month to 79.0 - the highest since February 2023 - from
77.3 in October.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts,
which become sales after a month or two, would rise 0.9% after
increasing 1.8% in October.