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US 10-year, 20-year, 30-year bond yields hit four-week
lows
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US two-year yields fall to lowest in seven weeks
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US three-year to seven-year yields slide to six-week
troughs
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US 2/10 yield curve flattens
(Recasts throughout, adding analyst comments, Treasury
auctions, yield curve, Fed meeting, NEW YORK dateline, updates
prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Alun John
NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
tumbled to multi-week lows on Monday, tracking steep declines in
equities, as investors sought the safety of government bonds,
with tech stocks sinking on the emergence of a Chinese discount
artificial intelligence model.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to a
four-week low and was last down 7.1 basis points at 4.552%. Both
20-year and 30-year bond yields also
slid to four-week troughs.
On the front-end of the curve, the two-year yield, which is
typically tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations, fell to
its lowest in seven weeks and was last down 5.6 bps at 4.216%
. The three-, five-, and seven-year yields all slid to
six-week lows.
The rush to bonds came as stocks, particularly tech stocks,
fell around the world, as the popularity of a Chinese discount
artificial intelligence model DeepSeek jolted investors' faith
in the profitability of AI and the sector's voracious demand for
high-tech chips.
Wall Street indexes fell in early trading, with the Nasdaq
down nearly 3% on the day. AI giant Nvidia
plunged more than 13% on Monday to $123.62.
"This is a flight-to-quality bid for Treasuries. People are
moving out of equities and going into fixed income trying to
understand the news that came out over the weekend with regard
to technology," said Jim Barnes, fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust
in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
"What exactly does that mean? Given the runup we have seen
in Treasuries, it was kind of easy to sell risk assets and go
into safe-haven Treasury assets."
YIELD CURVE FLATTENS
The U.S. Treasury yield curve on Monday, meanwhile,
flattened or reduced its steepness from the previous session. It
showed what traders call a "bull flattening" scenario where
long-term interest rates are falling faster than shorter-dated
ones. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields
narrowed to 34.1 bps, compared with 35.1 late
Friday.
A "bull flattener" occurs when there is a flight-to-safety
bid on Treasuries, which is what is currently happening in the
market.
Bond investors are also preparing for two auctions on
Monday: $69 billion in two-year notes and $70 billion in
five-year debt.
"Today's Treasury supply (2s and 5s) will undoubtedly
benefit from the reversal in risk assets, and the absence of
meaningful economic data ahead of the Fed suggests that any move
will have plenty of room to run," BMO Capital Markets wrote in a
research note.
Also a focus this week is the Federal Open Market Committee
monetary policy meeting, with the announcement of the outcome on
Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark
overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, in what market
participants described as a "dovish pause".
"The Fed is not going to act without knowing policies from
the new administration," Vincent Reinhart, chief economist, at
BNY Investments, said.
"They're in an awkward position about providing guidance.
They can't explain forecasts that depend on certain government
policies."
With the latest sell-off in stocks, the U.S. rate futures
market has priced 50 bps in cuts this year, or two rate
reductions of 25 bps each, up from 36 bps late on Friday,
according to LSEG calculations. The rates market for most of
this month had priced in just one rate easing.