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TREASURIES-US yields drop to multi-week lows as tech selloff drives safe-haven bids
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TREASURIES-US yields drop to multi-week lows as tech selloff drives safe-haven bids
Jan 27, 2025 8:09 AM

*

US 10-year, 20-year, 30-year bond yields hit four-week

lows

*

US two-year yields fall to lowest in seven weeks

*

US three-year to seven-year yields slide to six-week

troughs

*

US 2/10 yield curve flattens

(Recasts throughout, adding analyst comments, Treasury

auctions, yield curve, Fed meeting, NEW YORK dateline, updates

prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Alun John

NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields

tumbled to multi-week lows on Monday, tracking steep declines in

equities, as investors sought the safety of government bonds,

with tech stocks sinking on the emergence of a Chinese discount

artificial intelligence model.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to a

four-week low and was last down 7.1 basis points at 4.552%. Both

20-year and 30-year bond yields also

slid to four-week troughs.

On the front-end of the curve, the two-year yield, which is

typically tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations, fell to

its lowest in seven weeks and was last down 5.6 bps at 4.216%

. The three-, five-, and seven-year yields all slid to

six-week lows.

The rush to bonds came as stocks, particularly tech stocks,

fell around the world, as the popularity of a Chinese discount

artificial intelligence model DeepSeek jolted investors' faith

in the profitability of AI and the sector's voracious demand for

high-tech chips.

Wall Street indexes fell in early trading, with the Nasdaq

down nearly 3% on the day. AI giant Nvidia

plunged more than 13% on Monday to $123.62.

"This is a flight-to-quality bid for Treasuries. People are

moving out of equities and going into fixed income trying to

understand the news that came out over the weekend with regard

to technology," said Jim Barnes, fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust

in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

"What exactly does that mean? Given the runup we have seen

in Treasuries, it was kind of easy to sell risk assets and go

into safe-haven Treasury assets."

YIELD CURVE FLATTENS

The U.S. Treasury yield curve on Monday, meanwhile,

flattened or reduced its steepness from the previous session. It

showed what traders call a "bull flattening" scenario where

long-term interest rates are falling faster than shorter-dated

ones. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields

narrowed to 34.1 bps, compared with 35.1 late

Friday.

A "bull flattener" occurs when there is a flight-to-safety

bid on Treasuries, which is what is currently happening in the

market.

Bond investors are also preparing for two auctions on

Monday: $69 billion in two-year notes and $70 billion in

five-year debt.

"Today's Treasury supply (2s and 5s) will undoubtedly

benefit from the reversal in risk assets, and the absence of

meaningful economic data ahead of the Fed suggests that any move

will have plenty of room to run," BMO Capital Markets wrote in a

research note.

Also a focus this week is the Federal Open Market Committee

monetary policy meeting, with the announcement of the outcome on

Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark

overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, in what market

participants described as a "dovish pause".

"The Fed is not going to act without knowing policies from

the new administration," Vincent Reinhart, chief economist, at

BNY Investments, said.

"They're in an awkward position about providing guidance.

They can't explain forecasts that depend on certain government

policies."

With the latest sell-off in stocks, the U.S. rate futures

market has priced 50 bps in cuts this year, or two rate

reductions of 25 bps each, up from 36 bps late on Friday,

according to LSEG calculations. The rates market for most of

this month had priced in just one rate easing.

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