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TREASURIES-US yields edge higher after bond rally as rate cut size uncertain
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TREASURIES-US yields edge higher after bond rally as rate cut size uncertain
Sep 11, 2024 12:36 AM

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose

on Monday as some investors took profits after a bond rally last

week driven by a weakening labor market, which left market

participants uncertain over the size of an expected Federal

Reserve interest rate cut this month.

Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, touched an

over one-year low on Friday after data showing U.S. employers

added far fewer workers than economists had expected in August

and July, cementing expectations that the U.S. central bank will

start cutting rates at its Sept. 17-18 rate-setting meting.

Those gains were partly reversed on Monday.

"The reality set in that the market moved a little too much

to lower yields on Friday and so there was a decent window to

sell paper at richer levels," said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed

income trading at Curvature Securities.

Investors were also selling ahead of Treasury auctions this

week of three-, 10- and 30-year paper, as well as on

expectations of heavy corporate debt supply as issuers try to

take advantage of lower yields, he added.

Rates futures traders on Monday were assigning a 73% chance

of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed next week,

slightly more than what was priced in last week, according to

CME Group data. Expectations of a 50 basis point cut were at

27%, down from 30% on Friday.

Uncertainty over the magnitude of the first rate cut could

cause some volatility in Treasuries for the rest of the week,

with investors looking at consumer price data on Wednesday for

more clarity over the pace of disinflation in the economy.

The U.S. presidential debate between Democratic candidate

Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday

could also cause some price fluctuations in the bond market,

investors said.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were at 3.734%

in early trade, some two basis points higher, and two-year

yields were about three points higher at 3.683%.

The closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve

comparing two- and 10-year yields, at nearly five basis points,

was slightly flatter than on Friday, when the spread of 10-year

yields over two-year yields was the largest since July 2022.

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