NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Monday as some investors took profits after a bond rally last
week driven by a weakening labor market, which left market
participants uncertain over the size of an expected Federal
Reserve interest rate cut this month.
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, touched an
over one-year low on Friday after data showing U.S. employers
added far fewer workers than economists had expected in August
and July, cementing expectations that the U.S. central bank will
start cutting rates at its Sept. 17-18 rate-setting meting.
Those gains were partly reversed on Monday.
"The reality set in that the market moved a little too much
to lower yields on Friday and so there was a decent window to
sell paper at richer levels," said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed
income trading at Curvature Securities.
Investors were also selling ahead of Treasury auctions this
week of three-, 10- and 30-year paper, as well as on
expectations of heavy corporate debt supply as issuers try to
take advantage of lower yields, he added.
Rates futures traders on Monday were assigning a 73% chance
of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed next week,
slightly more than what was priced in last week, according to
CME Group data. Expectations of a 50 basis point cut were at
27%, down from 30% on Friday.
Uncertainty over the magnitude of the first rate cut could
cause some volatility in Treasuries for the rest of the week,
with investors looking at consumer price data on Wednesday for
more clarity over the pace of disinflation in the economy.
The U.S. presidential debate between Democratic candidate
Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday
could also cause some price fluctuations in the bond market,
investors said.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were at 3.734%
in early trade, some two basis points higher, and two-year
yields were about three points higher at 3.683%.
The closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve
comparing two- and 10-year yields, at nearly five basis points,
was slightly flatter than on Friday, when the spread of 10-year
yields over two-year yields was the largest since July 2022.