WASHINGTON, May 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
headed lower for a fourth straight day on Friday morning,
closing out a week in which reported progress in efforts to
secure a truce between the United States and Iran had spurred
some optimism on markets.
In a speech on Friday, Michelle Bowman, the Fed's vice chair
for supervision, said it was still early to gauge the Middle
East war's impact on the economy but that a prolonged energy
shock could require the central bank to change its stance on
monetary policy.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge last month hit its highest
level in three years, according to Commerce Department data
released on Thursday.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading, said the
fragile pause in hostilities since last month was easing the
upward pressure on crude oil prices and inflation expectations,
helping move Treasury yields lower.
"We're probably not done with high oil prices just simply
because we've possibly come to an agreement. We've been here
before," he said. "The price has come down and that's given the
bonds a chance to take a breath."
Elsewhere on Friday, the Commerce Department reported
slightly better-than-expected figures for the U.S. trade
balance.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was last down 0.8 basis points to 4.447%. The
yield on the 30-year bond fell 0.4 basis points to
4.981%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 43.1 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, fell 1.1 basis points to 4.014%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.529% after closing at 2.559% on May 28.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.391%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.4% a year for the next decade.