Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields briefly jumped
and then fell to end only modestly higher on the day on Friday
after data showed that core inflation rise at a moderate pace in
December while consumer spending surged, solidifying
expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for the
coming months.
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index
rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' expectations, for
an annual gain of 2.8%. The headline PCE price index rose 0.3%
last month for an annual gain of 2.6%.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds
of U.S. economic activity, meanwhile beat estimates with a 0.7%
jump during the month.
"The very strong personal income spending data continues to
suggest that the consumer remains resilient. At the same time,
you do have inflationary pressures continuing to fade," said
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities
in New York. "It really underscores that the Fed can keep rates
on hold, at least for the next meeting or so if data like this
continues."
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S.
central bank wants to see further progress in inflation before
cutting rates, but also expressed confidence that it remains on
the right path to ease back closer to the Fed's 2% annual
target.
Fed governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday she still
expects declining inflation to allow further interest rate cuts
this year, but feels rising wages, buoyant financial markets,
geopolitical risks, and upcoming administration policies could
slow the process and keep price pressures elevated.
Uncertainty over the impact of potential tariffs by the
Donald Trump administration is muddying the outlook on the
economy.
"Markets are struggling to figure out what to focus on here.
I think that's one of the biggest issues... that the data seems
to be relatively good, but there's a lot of uncertainty about
tariffs and really what comes next on that front," Goldberg
said.
Companies, consumers and farmers across North America braced
on Friday for Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and
Mexican imports within hours, moves that could disrupt nearly
$1.6 trillion in annual trade.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last up 1.2 basis
points on the day at 4.21%.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1
basis points to 4.523%.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
was little changed on the day at 31.6 basis
points.