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TREASURIES-US yields edge up with Trump, Fed policies in focus
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TREASURIES-US yields edge up with Trump, Fed policies in focus
Nov 19, 2024 9:01 PM

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury

yields edged higher on Monday as traders digested a still-strong

U.S. economy and the likely policies of a Donald Trump

administration after Republicans won the presidency and control

of Congress.

Yields rose heading into the Nov. 5 U.S. elections on

expectations of a Republican sweep. They have only modestly

added to these gains since the Republican victories as traders

evaluate which policies are now likely to be enacted.

"A red sweep might have already been increasingly priced in,

but also I think there's just still a lot of uncertainty about

what the federal policy landscape looks like next year," said

Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial.

Lower tax rates and looser business regulations under a

Trump administration could boost growth while other policies,

including clamping down on illegal immigration and enacting new

tariffs, may boost inflation but then also dampen U.S. economic

strength, analysts said.

Traders are also unsure of whether Trump is likely to

introduce broad tariffs or whether they will be used as a

negotiating tactic.

Meanwhile, still-strong economic data has raised doubts on

whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates,

following 75 basis points of reductions so far since September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that ongoing

economic growth, a solid job market, and inflation that remains

above its 2% target mean the Fed does not need to rush to lower

interest rates.

Data on Friday showing that U.S. retail sales increased

slightly more than expected in October added to the view that

the Fed could soon pause rate cuts.

Traders are pricing in 62% odds that the U.S. central bank

will cut rates by 25 basis points at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, and

a 38% chance of a pause, according to the CME Group's FedWatch

Tool.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 2.5

basis points on the day at 4.451%. They reached 4.505% on

Friday, the highest since May 31.

Two-year yields fell 0.4 basis point to 4.297%.

They hit 4.379% on Friday, the highest since July 31.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes

steepened 2 basis points to 15 basis points.

The Treasury Department will sell $16 billion in 20-year

bonds on Wednesday and $17 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation

Protected Securities on Thursday.

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