(Updated at 3:38 p.m. ET/1938 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasury yields were mostly lower on Wednesday, with
the benchmark 10-year note yield on track for its biggest drop
in two weeks, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at
their current levels, as was widely expected.
Yields initially moved higher after the policy statement
in which the central bank
held rates
steady, but signaled the door was open to reduce borrowing
costs as soon as its next meeting in September as inflation
draws closer to its 2% target rate.
But yields turned lower as Chair Jerome Powell spoke
after the announcement and noted that central bank
officials had
a "real discussion" about cutting rates at the July meeting
but a strong majority believed it was not the appropriate time.
"As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee decided
to keep its key interest rate, the federal funds rate,
unchanged," said Travis Keshemberg, Senior Portfolio Manager for
the systematic edge multi-asset team at Allspring Global
Investments in San Francisco.
"We believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the
first time this cycle at its September meeting as long as
incoming data continue to align with our expectations."
Yields were lower before the Fed statement after
economic data indicated a slowing in the labor market and wage
growth indicating the central bank has some cushion to cut rates
this year.
The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls
rose by 122,000 jobs this month, short of the 150,000 of
economists polled by Reuters, after advancing by an upwardly
revised 155,000 in June.
In addition, the employment cost index (ECI), the broadest
measure of labor costs, increased 0.9% last quarter, below the
1.0% estimate, after rising by an unrevised 1.2% in the first
quarter, another sign inflation is cooling.
Recent inflation data such as the consumer price index (CPI)
has fueled expectations recently the Fed will be in position to
cut rates this year.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 6.3 basis points, its fifth straight session of
declines, to 4.078% after dropping to 4.074%, its lowest level
since March 11.
The reports were on the heels of job openings data on
Tuesday that suggested a gradual slowing in the labor market and
ahead of a the key government payrolls report on Friday.
The yield on the 30-year bond was also lower for
a fifth straight session and was last down 4.9 basis points to
4.35% after hitting a six-week low of 4.342%.
Treasury said earlier on Wednesday that it does not expect
to increase auction sizes for U.S. notes and bonds over the next
several quarters, as it announced total refunding of $125
billion for the August to October quarter.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 21.4 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
dropped 6.9 basis points to 4.29% after falling to 4.284%, its
lowest since February 2.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.145% after closing at 2.133% on July 30.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.235%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.