(Updated at 10:27 a.m. ET/ 1427 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
mostly lower on Thursday after a tumble in equities helped fuel
a safe-haven bid for bonds, as a solid reading on economic
growth failed to alter expectations for a rate cut from the
Federal Reserve.
Yields briefly pared declines after the Commerce
Department's advance report on second-quarter gross domestic
product
grew at
a 2.8% annualized rate, above the 2.0% rise forecast by
economists polled by Reuters and stronger than the 1.4% rate in
the first quarter. In addition, the data showed inflation
pressures eased, giving the Fed room to cut rates this year as
the market widely expects.
Other data showed weekly initial jobless
claims fell
more than expected to 235,000 compared with the 238,000
forecast, indicating a cooling but still solid labor market.
The U.S. stock market sold off sharply on Wednesday, as
drops in Google parent Alphabet and Tesla,
two megacap names that have helped lift the stock market to
record highs, sparked a broader selloff in the wake of their
earnings reports.
"The bond market is being pretty resilient because that
was a hot GDP print," said Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure
Capital Advisors in New York.
"We're setting up for a Goldilocks-type situation where
we feared that the housing sector is really rolling over and
that might cause GDP to go to at least zero, but that doesn't
seem like it's going to happen and then the Fed will finally
cut, late, but still cut."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 6.5 basis points, on pace for its biggest daily
drop in two weeks, to 4.221%.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 7.5 basis
points to 4.474%.
The Fed is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting at the
end of July. Markets see only a slight chance for a rate cut of
at least 25 basis points (bps) at that meeting, but are fully
pricing in a September cut, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 18.1 basis points after
steepening to a negative 13.0, its least inverted since Oct. 23.
An inversion of this part of the curve is widely viewed as a
reliable signal that a recession is likely to follow in one to
two years, although some analysts have noted the move out of
inversion may be a better indicator of an oncoming recession.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
fell 1.8 basis points to 4.398%.
After auctions of $69 billion in two-year notes and $70
billion in five-year notes earlier this week, another
$44 billion in seven-year notes is scheduled for
Thursday in the week's final auction.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.147% after closing at 2.169% on July 24.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.249%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.