*
Powell says strong economy allows caution, Musalem warns
about
unclear path of rate cuts
*
Markets focus on upcoming jobs data, CPI
*
ADP employment slight below expectations, ISM shows
slowing
services activity
(Updates to mid-afternoon trading)
By Tatiana Bautzer and Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, reversing course
after softer economic data offset Federal Reserve officials'
comments, and markets continued to price in a 25-basis point
interest rate cut in the U.S. central bank's December meeting.
Yields initially rose after St. Louis Federal Reserve
President Alberto Musalem said inflation could take up to two
years to get to the central bank's target and that the pace of
future actions has grown less clear.
However, the ADP National Employment Report showed
private payrolls rose by 146,000 jobs last month, compared with
the 150,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The U.S.
services sector activity slowed in November after posting big
gains in recent months, according to the Institute for Supply
Management survey on Wednesday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said earlier on Wednesday
that
the economy is stronger than it had appeared in September
, making policymakers potentially more cautious about
lowering rates further. His remarks were likely his last before
a quiet period for Fed officials prior to the Dec. 17-18 meeting
beginning on Saturday.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday he was
"leaning toward" a cut, but others did not commit to the
outcome.
"Markets are still expecting a 25-basis points rate cut
in December, but the CPI and nonfarm payrolls will have their
say," said Vail Hartman, analyst at BMO Capital Markets in New
York.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield
fell 3.7 basis points to 4.184%. The two-year
yield, which typically moves in step with interest
rate expectations, fell 3.9 basis points to 4.132%.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve between two and 10-year
notes, an indicator of economic expectations,
steepened to 4.8 basis points.
Yields extended declines after far-right and left-wing
lawmakers
joined forces
to back a no-confidence motion against French Prime
Minister Michel Barnier and his government, pushing the
European Union's second-biggest economic power deeper into a
political crisis.
Nonfarm payrolls in November will be unveiled on Friday. The
consumer price index data will be released next Wednesday. The
odds of a 25-basis points rate cut were at 75.7%, according to
CME's FedWatch tool.
Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust
in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, said yields have been volatile over the
last week sessions, as investors followed comments from Fed
officials.
"That said, I thought the ADP data came in somewhat benign;
the most important jobs data will come on Friday."
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.379% after closing at 2.395% on Tuesday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.287%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.