(Rewrites throughout, adds analyst comment, auction results)
*
Investors optimistic about potential rate cuts later this
year
after Powell's comments
*
Although fragile, Israel-Iran ceasefire pushes oil prices
lower
*
Demand at $69 billion two-year notes auction tepid, with
high
primary dealers stake
By Tatiana Bautzer, Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
declined on Tuesday, with the two-year and 10-year notes hitting
seven-week lows, as a weaker than anticipated reading of
consumer confidence bolstered hopes of a near-term interest rate
cut and oil prices continued to fall amid fragile optimism over
a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
President Donald Trump on Monday announced a ceasefire between
Israel and Iran that offered relief to rattled investors after a
12-day conflict that bruised global risk assets and stoked
inflation fears. Markets welcomed the move and largely brushed
off ceasefire violations by both sides.
Oil prices fell almost 6% to a two-week low on Tuesday on
expectations that the ceasefire will reduce the risk of oil
supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Although the price of bonds, which moves in the opposite
direction of yields, had fallen briefly in the morning, it rose
after U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday he was open
to the idea that any possible inflation kindled by Trump's
tariffs may prove to be less severe than thought.
Those comments followed recent remarks from two Fed
officials, both Trump appointees, who said rates could fall as
soon as the July meeting, given that inflation has not yet risen
in response to tariffs.
Adding downward pressure on yields, U.S. consumer confidence
deteriorated in June, the Conference Board said on Tuesday. "The
continued selloff in the crude oil market and the much weaker
than anticipated reading of consumer confidence were news items
helping out" the market, said Lou Brien, strategist at DRW
Trading Group in Chicago.
"(Powell) is acknowledging that their forecasts could be
wrong and if you look at the hard data itself you could probably
argue that the Fed should be cutting right now," said Lawrence
Gillum, chief fixed income strategist for LPL Financial. "He's
open to being wrong, which is good," added Gillum.
Expectations for a 25 basis-point interest rate cut in July
were roughly unchanged at 20% on Tuesday, CME Group data showed,
while bets on a first 25-bps cut in September stood at 70%,
compared with 67% on Monday.
TEPID AUCTION DEMAND
Although the yield on the $69 billion two-year note auction
was the lowest in this kind of offerings this year, at 3.786%,
demand was tepid, DRW's Brien said.
"The fact that the primary dealers ended up buying 13.2% of
the sale, a percentage that is among the higher seen over the
last year, is also a negative when judging demand," he added.
The higher the percentage bought by the primary dealers, the
less demand from the other auction participants.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were at 4.287% late on
Tuesday afternoon, down 3.5 basis points from Monday, while
30-year yields fell 3 basis points to 4.829%. The two-year
yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate
expectations, was down 2.1 basis points at 3.808%, the lowest
since May 8.
The U.S. Treasury will sell five-year and seven-year debt on
Wednesday and Thursday.