NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited an auction
later in the day and gauged the Federal Reserve's plans for
interest rates.
Investors have completely priced in a rate cut from the Fed
of at least 25 basis points at its mid-September policy meeting,
with expectations for a 50-bps cut at 34.5%, up from 11.3% a
month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Yields have been declining as economic data has signaled a
softening economy and inflation has resumed cooling, leading Fed
Chair Jerome Powell to signal last week a shift in the central
bank's focus to supporting the labor market over combating
inflation.
"A lot of people are just kind of waiting for the September
meeting," said Tom di Galoma, managing director and head of
fixed income at Curvature Securities in Park City, Utah.
"The Fed is certainly ready to cut rates, I'm looking for 50
basis points in September. I'm probably an outlier, but the Fed
probably wants to make the first move a substantial one, they
want to probably get the economy going a little bit."
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative-3.4 bps after narrowing to a
negative-2.79 bps, its highest level since Aug. 8.
The narrower inversion suggested that the bond market is
pricing in the Fed's easing cycle.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 0.6 bps to 3.827%.
Trading activity was dampened ahead of Monday's U.S. Labor
Day holiday.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 0.9 bps to
4.119%.
Treasury is scheduled to auction $70 billion in five-year
notes, which investors will eye for signs of demand
for debt. A July auction tailed by 1.1 bps, and the one-year
average tail is 0.3 bps, according to Deutsche Bank. The yield
was last flat at 3.653%.
A two-year note auction of $69 billion on Tuesday was solid,
with more supply coming on Thursday with $44 billion in
seven-year notes.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest-rate expectations,
fell 0.6 bps to 3.859%.
The break-even rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities was last at 2.041%
after closing at 2.042% on Aug. 27.