NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
little changed to modestly down on Tuesday in choppy trading,
edging up from their lows, after a generally positive consumer
confidence report and as a widely tracked jobs data continued to
a show a resilient labor market.
The reports, however, did not alter expectations that the
Federal Reserve will flag at this week's monetary policy meeting
an interest rate cut in September, the first in more than four
years. The Fed is widely anticipated on Wednesday to keep its
benchmark overnight rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for an eighth
straight meeting.
"We're drifting a little bit here. I don't think the market
has strong conviction on direction," said Gennadiy Goldberg,
head of U.S. rates strategy, at TD Securities in New York.
"The market is waiting for the slew of releases (on
Wednesday), including the refunding from the Treasury. It's
setting up for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) as well
and other key events."
Aside from the FOMC, the Treasury on Wednesday will announce
auction sizes for the sale of bills, notes and coupons in a
quarterly refunding aimed at raising new cash from private
investors.
Tuesday's data, meanwhile, showed U.S. consumer confidence
unexpectedly rose in July, but remained in a tight range of the
past two years. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index
increased to 100.3 this month from a downwardly revised 97.8 in
June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index
falling to 99.7 from the previously reported 100.4.
At the same time, U.S. job openings fell marginally in June
while data for the prior month was revised higher, suggesting a
labor market that is slowing but stable.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 46,000 to
8.184 million by the last day of June, the according to the Job
Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Data for
May was revised higher to show 8.230 million unfilled positions
instead of the previously reported 8.140 million.
Following the data, Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL
Financial, said business activity was weaker as consumers have
pulled back on buying plans for big ticket items such as autos
and homes.
"If the labor market does soften, we should expect consumer
spending to slow, especially for discretionary items. Investors
should anticipate the Fed to prepare markets for a rate cut at
the September meeting," Roach said.
In morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield
was slightly down at 4.172%. It earlier slid to a two-week
trough of Monday.
U.S. 30-year bond yields were also flat at
4.425%.
On the short end of the curve, the U.S. two-year
yield, which typically moves in line with interest rate
forecasts, was little changed at 4.379%.
The closely watched U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve
narrowed its inversion, or steepened to minus 21.4 basis points
, as investors brace for the Fed's incoming
rate-cutting cycle.
Yield curves typically steepen ahead of a Fed easing phase,
with investors pricing in lower yields on the front end. A
steeper curve shows longer-dated yields rising more than shorter
maturities, with normal upward slope.
The U.S. rate futures market continues to fully price in a
rate cut in September