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TREASURIES-US yields flat to slightly lower as market sets up for Fed meeting
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TREASURIES-US yields flat to slightly lower as market sets up for Fed meeting
Jul 30, 2024 8:43 AM

NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were

little changed to modestly down on Tuesday in choppy trading,

edging up from their lows, after a generally positive consumer

confidence report and as a widely tracked jobs data continued to

a show a resilient labor market.

The reports, however, did not alter expectations that the

Federal Reserve will flag at this week's monetary policy meeting

an interest rate cut in September, the first in more than four

years. The Fed is widely anticipated on Wednesday to keep its

benchmark overnight rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for an eighth

straight meeting.

"We're drifting a little bit here. I don't think the market

has strong conviction on direction," said Gennadiy Goldberg,

head of U.S. rates strategy, at TD Securities in New York.

"The market is waiting for the slew of releases (on

Wednesday), including the refunding from the Treasury. It's

setting up for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) as well

and other key events."

Aside from the FOMC, the Treasury on Wednesday will announce

auction sizes for the sale of bills, notes and coupons in a

quarterly refunding aimed at raising new cash from private

investors.

Tuesday's data, meanwhile, showed U.S. consumer confidence

unexpectedly rose in July, but remained in a tight range of the

past two years. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index

increased to 100.3 this month from a downwardly revised 97.8 in

June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index

falling to 99.7 from the previously reported 100.4.

At the same time, U.S. job openings fell marginally in June

while data for the prior month was revised higher, suggesting a

labor market that is slowing but stable.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 46,000 to

8.184 million by the last day of June, the according to the Job

Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Data for

May was revised higher to show 8.230 million unfilled positions

instead of the previously reported 8.140 million.

Following the data, Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL

Financial, said business activity was weaker as consumers have

pulled back on buying plans for big ticket items such as autos

and homes.

"If the labor market does soften, we should expect consumer

spending to slow, especially for discretionary items. Investors

should anticipate the Fed to prepare markets for a rate cut at

the September meeting," Roach said.

In morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield

was slightly down at 4.172%. It earlier slid to a two-week

trough of Monday.

U.S. 30-year bond yields were also flat at

4.425%.

On the short end of the curve, the U.S. two-year

yield, which typically moves in line with interest rate

forecasts, was little changed at 4.379%.

The closely watched U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve

narrowed its inversion, or steepened to minus 21.4 basis points

, as investors brace for the Fed's incoming

rate-cutting cycle.

Yield curves typically steepen ahead of a Fed easing phase,

with investors pricing in lower yields on the front end. A

steeper curve shows longer-dated yields rising more than shorter

maturities, with normal upward slope.

The U.S. rate futures market continues to fully price in a

rate cut in September

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