financetom
Market
financetom
/
Market
/
TREASURIES-US yields higher as economic data keeps Fed expectations in check
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
TREASURIES-US yields higher as economic data keeps Fed expectations in check
Jul 16, 2026 12:05 PM

* Retail sales rose 0.2% last month, matching economists'

estimate

* Weekly initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 208,000

* Fed's Logan calls for rate hike

(Updates to afternoon trading)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were

modestly higher on Thursday after data on consumer health and

the labor market did little to modify investor expectations on

the path of near-term interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.2% last month,

matching the estimate by economists polled by Reuters, after an

upwardly revised 1.0% jump in May.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed weekly

initial jobless claims dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted

208,000, below economists' 217,000 estimate, indicating the

labor market remains on stable footing.

Yields had fallen in the prior two sessions, as readings on

consumer and producer prices were cooler than anticipated,

tempering expectations for a near-term rate hike from the Fed.

"There is just a lot of jitteriness within the market in

there not really being a consensus of exactly how to interpret a

lot of this data, in the context of what the Fed might do," said

Tom Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies in New York.

"I don't think anything in the data this morning changes

too, too much. It kind of confirms some of the things that we've

seen in the data for the last couple of months... but it doesn't

really tell you too much about what the Fed might do in the next

couple of months."

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note

added 1.6 basis points to 4.561%. The yield had

dropped 6.5 basis points over the past two days, its largest

two-day fall in three weeks.

ENERGY MARKETS SHIFT ON PEACE DEAL DOUBTS

Energy prices have come down in recent weeks on expectations

that a durable peace deal could be reached between the U.S. and

Iran. However, hostilities have intensified in recent days and

caused a reversal in crude prices to one-month highs.

U.S. crude declined 1.22% to $78.67 a barrel and Brent

fell to $84.07 per barrel, down 1.04% on the day.

The rising crude prices had raised expectations the Fed

would hike rates at its July meeting, before recent inflation

data prompted traders to scale back those bets.

Money markets are currently pricing in just a 10.2% chance for a

rate hike at the central bank's policy meeting later this month,

down from slightly more than 40% on Monday, according to CME

FedWatch.

However, the market is pricing in a 55.1% probability of a

hike of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's September meeting,

up from 48.4% on Wednesday.

The yield on the 30-year bond edged up 0.9

basis point to 5.092%.

FED OFFICIALS STRESS INFLATION CONCERNS

Fed officials have recently flagged concerns about inflation

pressures over the labor market, while Chair Kevin Warsh said

the cooler inflation reading was welcome, but more evidence

would be needed to feel confident that price pressures were

ebbing.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve

measuring the gap between yields on 2- and 10-year notes

, seen as an indicator of economic expectations,

was at a positive 40.3 basis points.

On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said that

inflation was proving to be persistent across a broad range of

goods and services, and remains the focus of monetary policy

given a stable labor market, while Dallas Federal Reserve

President Lorie Logan called for "modestly higher" interest

rates.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in

step with interest rate expectations, gained 2.8 basis points to

4.156%.

The breakeven rate on 5-year U.S. Treasury

Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at

2.259% after closing at 2.265% on Wednesday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at

2.236%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about

2.2% a year for the next decade.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
TREASURIES-US yields flat to marginally higher following durables data
TREASURIES-US yields flat to marginally higher following durables data
May 24, 2024
NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were little changed to slightly higher on Friday in choppy trading after yet another report suggesting that the world's largest economy is far from slowing down, which is likely to push the Federal Reserve to hold off cutting interest rates this year. Volume is thinner than usual ahead of the Memorial...
EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX set for weekly losses as Fed rate cut hopes ebb
EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX set for weekly losses as Fed rate cut hopes ebb
May 24, 2024
* Latam stocks up 0.1%, though set for weekly loss * Chile's peso jumps after local rate decision By Shashwat Chauhan May 24 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies were set for weekly losses on Friday as crumbling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts propped up the dollar, while Chile's peso outpaced peers following a smaller local interest rate...
Wall St Week Ahead-Inflation data, presidential debate could sink summer rally
Wall St Week Ahead-Inflation data, presidential debate could sink summer rally
May 24, 2024
NEW YORK, May 23 (Reuters) - The typical summer slowdown in U.S. stock markets may be more pronounced this year with inflation jitters and an early presidential debate that have the potential to weigh on a rally that has pushed the S&P 500 near record highs in recent months. The S&P 500 is up nearly 12% this year on strong...
Inflation data, presidential debate could sink summer rally
Inflation data, presidential debate could sink summer rally
May 24, 2024
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The typical summer slowdown in U.S. stock markets may be more pronounced this year with inflation jitters and an early presidential debate that have the potential to weigh on a rally that has pushed the S&P 500 near record highs in recent months. The S&P 500 is up nearly 12% this year on strong earnings and...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved