* Retail sales rose 0.2% last month, matching economists'
estimate
* Weekly initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 208,000
* Fed's Logan calls for rate hike
(Updates to afternoon trading)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
modestly higher on Thursday after data on consumer health and
the labor market did little to modify investor expectations on
the path of near-term interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.2% last month,
matching the estimate by economists polled by Reuters, after an
upwardly revised 1.0% jump in May.
A separate report from the Labor Department showed weekly
initial jobless claims dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted
208,000, below economists' 217,000 estimate, indicating the
labor market remains on stable footing.
Yields had fallen in the prior two sessions, as readings on
consumer and producer prices were cooler than anticipated,
tempering expectations for a near-term rate hike from the Fed.
"There is just a lot of jitteriness within the market in
there not really being a consensus of exactly how to interpret a
lot of this data, in the context of what the Fed might do," said
Tom Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies in New York.
"I don't think anything in the data this morning changes
too, too much. It kind of confirms some of the things that we've
seen in the data for the last couple of months... but it doesn't
really tell you too much about what the Fed might do in the next
couple of months."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
added 1.6 basis points to 4.561%. The yield had
dropped 6.5 basis points over the past two days, its largest
two-day fall in three weeks.
ENERGY MARKETS SHIFT ON PEACE DEAL DOUBTS
Energy prices have come down in recent weeks on expectations
that a durable peace deal could be reached between the U.S. and
Iran. However, hostilities have intensified in recent days and
caused a reversal in crude prices to one-month highs.
U.S. crude declined 1.22% to $78.67 a barrel and Brent
fell to $84.07 per barrel, down 1.04% on the day.
The rising crude prices had raised expectations the Fed
would hike rates at its July meeting, before recent inflation
data prompted traders to scale back those bets.
Money markets are currently pricing in just a 10.2% chance for a
rate hike at the central bank's policy meeting later this month,
down from slightly more than 40% on Monday, according to CME
FedWatch.
However, the market is pricing in a 55.1% probability of a
hike of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's September meeting,
up from 48.4% on Wednesday.
The yield on the 30-year bond edged up 0.9
basis point to 5.092%.
FED OFFICIALS STRESS INFLATION CONCERNS
Fed officials have recently flagged concerns about inflation
pressures over the labor market, while Chair Kevin Warsh said
the cooler inflation reading was welcome, but more evidence
would be needed to feel confident that price pressures were
ebbing.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on 2- and 10-year notes
, seen as an indicator of economic expectations,
was at a positive 40.3 basis points.
On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said that
inflation was proving to be persistent across a broad range of
goods and services, and remains the focus of monetary policy
given a stable labor market, while Dallas Federal Reserve
President Lorie Logan called for "modestly higher" interest
rates.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations, gained 2.8 basis points to
4.156%.
The breakeven rate on 5-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.259% after closing at 2.265% on Wednesday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.236%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.