(Updates with latest yields, adds Chicago PMI in paragraphs 1
and 6-11)
WASHINGTON, May 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
edged lower a fourth straight day on Friday, closing out a week
in which reported progress in efforts to secure a truce between
the United States and Iran had spurred some optimism on markets.
In a speech, Michelle Bowman, the Fed's vice chair for
supervision, said it was still early to gauge the Middle East
war's impact on the economy but that a prolonged energy shock
could require the central bank to change its stance on monetary
policy.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge last month hit its highest
level in three years, according to Commerce Department data
released on Thursday. That came among a batch of economic
figures that analysts said held warning signs for stagflation.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading, said the
fragile pause in hostilities since last month was easing the
upward pressure on crude oil prices and inflation expectations,
helping move Treasury yields lower.
"We're probably not done with high oil prices just simply
because we've possibly come to an agreement. We've been here
before," he said. "The price has come down and that's given the
bonds a chance to take a breath."
Elsewhere on Friday, the Commerce Department reported slightly
better-than-expected figures for the U.S. trade balance. And in
a bright spot, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer, a weighted
index measuring business activity in the Chicago area, surged
past expectations to its highest level in more than four years.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was last down 1.6 basis points (bps) to 4.439%,
putting it on pace for a decline of 12.5 bps for the week,
marking the biggest drop since early February. For the month,
the yield was up 5.9 bps on track for a third straight monthly
rise.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 0.2 bps to
4.983%, leaving it on pace for an 8.9-bps fall, the largest
decline since late February. It was likewise up marginally for
the month, also the third straight month of gains.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 43.7 bps.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, fell 2.5 basis points to 4%, leaving it on pace for a fall
of 11.3 bps for the week. However, it still recorded a rise of
12.9 bps for the month, its third straight monthly increase.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.527% after closing at 2.559% on May 28.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.39%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4%
a year for the next decade.