(Updated at 2:28 p.m. ET/1828 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
barely higher on Wednesday after an auction was well received by
the market and investors turned toward data on economic growth
and inflation later in the week to gauge the path of interest
rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Investors have completely priced in a rate cut from the Fed
of at least 25 basis points at its mid-September policy meeting,
with expectations for a 50-bps cut at 36.5%, up from 11.3% a
month ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
Yields have been declining as economic data has signaled a
softening economy and inflation has resumed cooling, leading Fed
Chair Jerome Powell to signal last week a shift in the central
bank's focus to supporting the labor market over combating
inflation.
"A lot of people are just kind of waiting for the September
meeting," said Tom di Galoma, managing director and head of
fixed income at Curvature Securities in Park City, Utah.
"The Fed is certainly ready to cut rates, I'm looking for 50
basis points in September. I'm probably an outlier, but the Fed
probably wants to make the first move a substantial one, they
want to probably get the economy going a little bit."
Yields saw little reaction, only moving slightly higher, to
an auction of five-year notes that was solid, with
demand for the notes at 2.41 times the notes on sale. The yield
was last up 0.7 bp to 3.664%.
The five-year auction follows a strong two-year note auction
of $69 billion on Tuesday, with more supply coming on Thursday
in the form of $44 billion in seven-year notes.
Data due on Thursday includes the second reading of economic
growth in the preliminary report on second quarter gross
domestic product. On Friday, the July personal consumption
expenditures data will indicate whether inflation continues to
cool.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 2.9 basis points after narrowing
to a negative 2.6 bps, its highest level since Aug. 8.
The narrower inversion suggested that the bond market is
pricing in the Fed's easing cycle.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 1.1 basis points to 3.844%. The yield on the
30-year bond edged up 0.4 basis point to 4.132%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
rose 0.6 basis point to 3.871%.
The break-even rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities was last at 2.041%
after closing at 2.042% on Aug. 27.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.042%, unchanged from the close on Aug. 27.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.153%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.