NEW YORK, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury
yields edged lower on Monday, after economic data signaled a
cooling in business spending, but moves were limited as
investors digested a steep drop on Friday.
The Commerce Department said non-defense capital goods
orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business
spending plans, dipped 0.1% last month after a downwardly
revised 0.5% increase in June and slightly below the unchanged
estimate.
Yields dropped to close out last week's trading after
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled an imminent start
for a rate cut from the central bank, noting that a further
cooling in the labor market would be unwelcome while signaling
confidence inflation is within reach of its 2% target.
Powell's comments signify a shift in the Fed's focus to
supporting the job market over combating inflation.
"The market was stronger this morning until the economic
data came out and really what you had is somewhat of a dovish
Powell speech that to some extent just kind of reconfirmed what
the market had been trading towards anyway right over the prior
couple weeks, or since the last labor market report," said Jim
Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn,
Pennsylvania.
"I would be surprised if you get any big swings at this
point one way or the other until you get some of the August
data, labor market and your inflation data. Yields have run down
pretty good to get to where they are down and so a breather at
this point makes sense."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 1.9 basis points to 3.788%. The 10-year yield
in on track for its fourth straight monthly fall, down more than
30 basis points for August, its biggest drop since December.
Markets are completely pricing in a rate cut of at least 25
basis points at the Fed's September meeting, pricing in a 32.5%
chance for a 50 basis point cut, according to CME's FedWatch
Tool.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 1.6 basis
points to 4.086%.
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said in
comments to the Bloomberg "Odd Lots" podcast that the
"low-hiring, low-firing" approach that U.S. businesses currently
take to their employment decisions is unlikely to last, citing
the risk that firms could resort to layoffs if the economy
weakens.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 11.2 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
fell 1.7 basis points to 3.896%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.039% after closing at 2.02% on August 23.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.135%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.1% a year for the next decade.