* Jobless claims rise above forecasts
* Oil prices fall on hopes for US-Iran deal and
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
* Fed's Lorie Logan says policy may be too loose
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
lower on Thursday, after labor market data was softer than
expected, while oil prices tumbled on renewed optimism a deal to
end the war between the U.S. and Iran could be reached.
Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire to end
hostilities, the Trump administration said on Wednesday,
increasing hopes for progress on a broader agreement to end the
U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
U.S. crude fell 3.27% to $92.88 a barrel and Brent
dropped to $95.12 per barrel, down 2.75% on the day.
On the economic front, the Labor Department said weekly initial
jobless claims rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000,
topping the 213,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters,
although the underlying trend indicated the labor market was on
stable footing.
"If we get a deal done, then we'll have a short-run
reprieve," said Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at
Sage Advisory in Austin.
"The background is we know we've got inflation pressure
that's still there and pretty constant... and the only other
ballast that we've had so far has been the idea of a weak labor
market."
The claims data was the latest in a string of reports on the
labor market this week, with the key government payrolls report
scheduled to be released on Friday.
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 4 basis points and was on track for its
biggest daily drop since May 26, to 4.451%.
Other data from the Labor Department showed worker productivity
increased at a downwardly revised 0.3% annualized rate last
quarter, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2025 and
shy of the 0.5% estimate.
Unit labor costs increased at a 1.8% rate last quarter, a
downward revision from the 2.3% pace reported last month and
below the 2.5% forecast.
The yield on the 30-year bond declined 2.6 basis
points to 4.963%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 42.2 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal
Reserve, dropped 5.7 basis points to 4.027%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said late
on Wednesday that she feels monetary policy is currently
"neutral or perhaps even a bit loose," and needs to be "at least
mildly restrictive" to get inflation down to its 2% target.
After beginning the year pricing in about 50 basis points
worth of cuts from the Fed this year, market expectations have
shifted and are now pricing in roughly 20 basis points in hikes,
according to LSEG data.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.488% after closing at 2.527% on Wednesday, its lowest close in
three months.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.365%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.4% a year for the next decade.