NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
mostly lower on Wednesday, after economic data indicated a
slowing in the labor market and wage growth ahead of a policy
announcement by the Federal Reserve later in the day.
The ADP National Employment Report showed private
payrollsrose by 122,000 jobs this month, short of the 150,000 of
economists polled by Reuters, after advancing by an upwardly
revised 155,000 in June.
In addition, the employment cost index (ECI), the broadest
measure of labor costs, increased 0.9% last quarter, below the
1.0% estimate, after rising by an unrevised 1.2% in the first
quarter, another sign inflation is cooling.
"We got a below consensus ADP report, which in and of itself
doesn't typically move markets all that much, but we also got a
below consensus employment cost index report as well," said
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities
in New York.
"That combination is just confirming that we're seeing
inflation and wages slow down and that's important for the Fed,
so if anything it's actually reinforcing the market's
expectation that the Fed will start rate cuts later in the
year."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 4.4 basis points, its fifth straight session of
declines, to 4.097% after dropping to 4.093%, its lowest level
since March 12.
The reports are on the heels of job openings data on Tuesday
suggested a gradual slowing in the labor market and ahead of a
the key government payrolls report on Friday.
The yield on the 30-year bond was also lower for
a fifth straight session and was last down 5.1 basis points to
4.348% after hitting a six-week low of 4.342%.
The data comes ahead of a Fed policy statement in which the
market is only pricing in a slight chance for a rate cut of at
least 25 basis points, while fully pricing in a cut at the
central bank's September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch
Tool.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, it is likely
the central bank will acknowledge inflation has moved closer to
its 2% target, paving the way for rate cuts later this year.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 24.9 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
fell 1.5 basis points to 4.344% after falling to 4.33%, its
lowest since February 2.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.134% after closing at 2.133% on July 30.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.23%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2%
a year for the next decade.