NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields on the
long end edged higher on Tuesday in choppy trading, as investors
digested a mixed batch of data that reinforces the uncertainty
surrounding the pace and timing of the Federal Reserve's easing
cycle, which is likely to start this year.
The bond market is also facing massive supply on Tuesday
with the auction of $69 billion in new U.S. two-year notes and
$70 billion in five-year Treasuries.
Treasury yields initially slipped after a government report
showed U.S. house price growth slowed sharply in March, likely
as rising mortgage rates pressured consumer demand.
Prices edged up 0.1% in March after surging by an unrevised
1.2% in February, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in its
monthly report on home prices. On a year-on-year basis, prices
increased 6.7% in March after a 7.1% rise in February.
U.S. longer-dated yields, however, turned higher, while
those on the short end trimmed their losses after a consumer
confidence report showed unexpected improvement in May, after
worsening for three consecutive months.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index
increased to 102.0 this month from an upwardly revised 97.5 in
April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index
slipping to 95.9 from the previously reported 97.0.
"Since the last jobs report that we got in the first week in
May, the 10-year and the yield curve have traded in a narrow
range: The 10-year has moved from 4.30% to 4.50%. The market is
looking for data that either shows the economy or inflation is
slowing," said Stan Shipley, managing director and fixed income
strategist at Evercore ISI in New York.
"Right now, there are no clear signs of that. So we're in
this holding pattern until something breaks: either the economy
or inflation slows further, or we're here with 3% growth and 3%
inflation," he added.
In late morning trading, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield
rose 2 basis points (bps) to 4.49%
U.S. 30-year yields gained 3.5 bps to 4.612%.
On the front end, the U.S. two-year yield, which reflects
rate move expectations, slipped 2 bps to 4.933%.
Those on five-year notes were flat at 4.531%.
The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, steepened or reduced its
inversion on Tuesday. The spread between U.S. two- and -10 year
yields, which historically has predicted eight of the last nine
recessions, was at 44.2 bps, compared with 48.3
bps last on Friday. The curve on Friday hit it most inverted
level since March 12 in the wake of stronger-than-expected U.S.
data.
Following the housing data and the U.S. consumer confidence
report, U.S. interest rate futures priced in one rate cut of 25
bps in 2024, possibly starting in November, according to LSEG's
rate probability app.