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TREASURIES-US yields mixed as economic data shows uncertain rate path
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TREASURIES-US yields mixed as economic data shows uncertain rate path
May 28, 2024 8:22 AM

NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields on the

long end edged higher on Tuesday in choppy trading, as investors

digested a mixed batch of data that reinforces the uncertainty

surrounding the pace and timing of the Federal Reserve's easing

cycle, which is likely to start this year.

The bond market is also facing massive supply on Tuesday

with the auction of $69 billion in new U.S. two-year notes and

$70 billion in five-year Treasuries.

Treasury yields initially slipped after a government report

showed U.S. house price growth slowed sharply in March, likely

as rising mortgage rates pressured consumer demand.

Prices edged up 0.1% in March after surging by an unrevised

1.2% in February, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in its

monthly report on home prices. On a year-on-year basis, prices

increased 6.7% in March after a 7.1% rise in February.

U.S. longer-dated yields, however, turned higher, while

those on the short end trimmed their losses after a consumer

confidence report showed unexpected improvement in May, after

worsening for three consecutive months.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index

increased to 102.0 this month from an upwardly revised 97.5 in

April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index

slipping to 95.9 from the previously reported 97.0.

"Since the last jobs report that we got in the first week in

May, the 10-year and the yield curve have traded in a narrow

range: The 10-year has moved from 4.30% to 4.50%. The market is

looking for data that either shows the economy or inflation is

slowing," said Stan Shipley, managing director and fixed income

strategist at Evercore ISI in New York.

"Right now, there are no clear signs of that. So we're in

this holding pattern until something breaks: either the economy

or inflation slows further, or we're here with 3% growth and 3%

inflation," he added.

In late morning trading, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield

rose 2 basis points (bps) to 4.49%

U.S. 30-year yields gained 3.5 bps to 4.612%.

On the front end, the U.S. two-year yield, which reflects

rate move expectations, slipped 2 bps to 4.933%.

Those on five-year notes were flat at 4.531%.

The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, steepened or reduced its

inversion on Tuesday. The spread between U.S. two- and -10 year

yields, which historically has predicted eight of the last nine

recessions, was at 44.2 bps, compared with 48.3

bps last on Friday. The curve on Friday hit it most inverted

level since March 12 in the wake of stronger-than-expected U.S.

data.

Following the housing data and the U.S. consumer confidence

report, U.S. interest rate futures priced in one rate cut of 25

bps in 2024, possibly starting in November, according to LSEG's

rate probability app.

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