NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury long-dated
yields edged higher in choppy trading on Tuesday as risk
appetite improved after China introduced broad stimulus measures
to support its faltering economy, while solid housing data
boosted expectations the Federal Reserve may not have to cut
rates aggressively in this latest easing cycle.
U.S. yields on seven-year notes and 30-year bonds hit fresh
three-week highs, while the yield curve again hit its steepest
level since June 2022, touching that milestone for a fifth
consecutive session.
Yields on the shorter-dated maturities, however, drifted
lower as the bond market continued to price in more interest
rate cuts over the next year.
"It's a combination of factors contributing to higher yields
(on the long end). China had a little bit to do with it,
although the market was already selling off early," said Jim
Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn,
Pennsylvania.
China on Tuesday said it will cut the amount of cash that
banks must hold as reserves - known as reserve requirement
ratios (RRR) - by 50 basis points (bps). It will also reduce the
seven-day repo rate by 0.2 percentage point to 1.5%, while
interest rates on existing mortgages will also be reduced by 0.5
percentage point on average.
"Also some of the economic data here were not as bad as
expected," Barnes said. "And I think the market is also taking a
breather with yields retracing higher, kind of keeping that
trend post-FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). The post-FOMC
digestion is still on a steeper yield curve path."
Treasury yields held their gains after data showing house
prices rose 0.1% on a month-on-month basis after being unchanged
in June. They increased 4.5% in the 12 months through July,
though that's the smallest rise since June 2023.
But yields came off on the long end after a report showing
U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September. The
Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7
this month from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. The decline
was the largest since August 2021. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast the index rising to 104.0.
In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield rose
1.1 bps to 3.749% after earlier hitting a three-week
high of 3.81% following the housing data.
U.S. 30-year yields were up 2.2 bps at 4.104%,
also hitting a three-week peak of 4.154% earlier in the session.
On the short end of the curve, however, U.S. two-year yields
slipped 1.9 bps to 3.557%.
The U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve, a gauge of investors'
economic outlook, meanwhile, saw its spread widen to as much as
20.2 bps, the steepest since June 2022. The curve
was last at positive 19 bps.
A steeper curve can mean one of two things, either more rate
cuts are on the way, or inflation could re-accelerate that could
prompt the Fed to pause cutting interest rates.
Since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps last Wednesday,
the curve has steepened by 15.1 bps and it was primarily a bear
steepener, a scenario in which longer rates are rising faster
than their shorter-term counterparts. That suggests inflation
could increase again down the road.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 56.5% chance of another
super-sized rate cut of 50 bps at the November meeting, with a
43.5% odds of the more standard 25 easing.
Bond investors are now looking to the auction of $69-billion
in U.S. two-year notes later on Tuesday
The auction "will offer a timely test of the demand for the
most policy-sensitive coupon now that the Fed's normalization
campaign is officially underway," wrote BMO Capital in a
research note.