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U.S. retail sales come in weaker than expected in May
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U.S. yields fall in five of last six sessions after data
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U.S. yield curve reduces inversion
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Focus on U.S. 20-year bond auction later on Tuesday
(Adds new comments, bullets, updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Tuesday after data showed retail sales in the world's largest
economy grew less than expected last month, keeping the Federal
Reserve on track to lower interest rates this year.
U.S. yields have fallen in five of the last six session as
data across different sectors of the economy has started to show
moderation. They rose on Monday, however, as investors took
profits on price gains that took the benchmark 10-year yield,
for instance, to a three-month low last Friday.
A government report on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales rose
0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in April.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which
are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, gaining
0.3% in May.
"I am not completely surprised that there is a slowdown in
consumption," said Thierry Wizman, global rates and FX
strategist at Macquarie in New York.
"Some of the analysis had suggested that it would be
around the middle of the year that we will get exhaustion in the
excess savings accumulated by households after the pandemic. If
we see a slowdown in the consumer, this would be around the
right time to expect them," he added.
In mid-morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield slid 2.3
basis points (bps) to 4.257%.
U.S. 30-year yields slipped 1.3 bps to 4.397%.
On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield declined
3.8 bps to 4.724%.
The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, modestly reduced its
inversion on Tuesday. The spread between U.S. two- and 10-year
yields, which typically signals the onset of recession was at
minus 46.6 bps, compared with minus 48.9 bps late
on Monday.
The curve is what is called a "bull steepener," in which
short-term rates are falling more sharply than longer-dated
ones. This often happens when the Fed is expected to cut
interest rates.
Following the retail sales data, fed funds futures
raised the chances of easing in September to around 67%, from
about 60% late on Monday, according to LSEG's calculations. The
market is also pricing between one to two rate cuts of 25 bps
each this year.
Later on Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury will auction $13
billion in 20-year bonds.
"As a theme, we're constructive on the prospects for the
auction in light of how well last week's 10s and 30s
(auctions)," wrote BMO Capital in a research note.
"The caveat is that 20s occupy a very specific place on
the curve, one in which the influence of relative value creates
concern on the heels of the recent flight-to-liquidity stemming
from the dislocations in Europe."