financetom
Market
financetom
/
Market
/
TREASURIES-US yields retreat as soft retail sales keep Fed on track to cut rates this year
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
TREASURIES-US yields retreat as soft retail sales keep Fed on track to cut rates this year
Jun 18, 2024 8:01 AM

*

U.S. retail sales come in weaker than expected in May

*

U.S. yields fall in five of last six sessions after data

*

U.S. yield curve reduces inversion

*

Focus on U.S. 20-year bond auction later on Tuesday

(Adds new comments, bullets, updates prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell

on Tuesday after data showed retail sales in the world's largest

economy grew less than expected last month, keeping the Federal

Reserve on track to lower interest rates this year.

U.S. yields have fallen in five of the last six session as

data across different sectors of the economy has started to show

moderation. They rose on Monday, however, as investors took

profits on price gains that took the benchmark 10-year yield,

for instance, to a three-month low last Friday.

A government report on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales rose

0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which

are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, gaining

0.3% in May.

"I am not completely surprised that there is a slowdown in

consumption," said Thierry Wizman, global rates and FX

strategist at Macquarie in New York.

"Some of the analysis had suggested that it would be

around the middle of the year that we will get exhaustion in the

excess savings accumulated by households after the pandemic. If

we see a slowdown in the consumer, this would be around the

right time to expect them," he added.

In mid-morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield slid 2.3

basis points (bps) to 4.257%.

U.S. 30-year yields slipped 1.3 bps to 4.397%.

On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield declined

3.8 bps to 4.724%.

The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, modestly reduced its

inversion on Tuesday. The spread between U.S. two- and 10-year

yields, which typically signals the onset of recession was at

minus 46.6 bps, compared with minus 48.9 bps late

on Monday.

The curve is what is called a "bull steepener," in which

short-term rates are falling more sharply than longer-dated

ones. This often happens when the Fed is expected to cut

interest rates.

Following the retail sales data, fed funds futures

raised the chances of easing in September to around 67%, from

about 60% late on Monday, according to LSEG's calculations. The

market is also pricing between one to two rate cuts of 25 bps

each this year.

Later on Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury will auction $13

billion in 20-year bonds.

"As a theme, we're constructive on the prospects for the

auction in light of how well last week's 10s and 30s

(auctions)," wrote BMO Capital in a research note.

"The caveat is that 20s occupy a very specific place on

the curve, one in which the influence of relative value creates

concern on the heels of the recent flight-to-liquidity stemming

from the dislocations in Europe."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Sector Update: Health Care
Sector Update: Health Care
May 26, 2025
08:59 AM EDT, 05/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Health care stocks declined pre-bell Monday as the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) was 0.4% lower and the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was down 0.8% recently. Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) and Alvotech ( ALVO ) said Selarsdi has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration as interchangeable with the reference...
Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Monday as Investors Brace for Fed Decision
Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Monday as Investors Brace for Fed Decision
May 26, 2025
08:31 AM EDT, 05/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) was down 0.7% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) retreated 0.9% in Monday's premarket activity as investors braced for this week's highly anticipated Fed rate decision. US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down...
Sector Update: Tech
Sector Update: Tech
May 26, 2025
08:52 AM EDT, 05/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Technology stocks fell pre-bell Monday as the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was 1% lower and the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) recently declined by 4%. ON Semiconductor (ON) shares were up over 1% after the company reported lower Q1 non-GAAP earnings and revenue that still topped analysts' expectations. ...
US STOCKS-Wall St set for lower open after Trump's fresh tariffs at start of Fed-decision week
US STOCKS-Wall St set for lower open after Trump's fresh tariffs at start of Fed-decision week
May 26, 2025
(For a Reuters live blog on US, UK and European stock markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window) * Futures down: Dow 0.64%, S&P 500 0.85%, Nasdaq 1.04% * Berkshire Hathaway falls after Buffett to step down as CEO * ISM services sector data due at 10 a.m. ET * Gold stocks shine tracking higher bullion prices (Updates...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved