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Yields climb after two-day decline
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Fed dissenters express concerns over inflation
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10-year yield poised for second straight weekly gain
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. 10-year Treasury
yields rose on Friday after two straight sessions of declines,
as investors assessed commentary from a flurry of Fed speakers
and a positive outlook on the economy.
U.S. yields had been steadily rising in recent weeks in tandem
with global yields as many central banks had signaled they are
either at or near the end of their own easing cycles, while the
Bank of Japan is widely anticipated to hike rates at its policy
meeting next week.
However, yields retreated after the Federal Reserve announced a
rate cut on Wednesday, but signaled a likely near-term pause as
it sees a pickup in economic growth next year.
The central bank also said it would begin buying short-dated
government bonds on Friday to help manage market liquidity
levels to ensure the central bank retains firm control over its
interest rate target system.
Multiple Fed officials commented on their stance in the recent
policy meeting as the blackout period ended, with those who
voted against the rate reduction expressing concerns that
inflation remains too high to justify lowering borrowing costs,
especially in light of the lack of official data due to the
extended government shutdown.
"The data is very mixed right now and these are individuals on
the Fed with different projections and different thoughts around
everything," said Tony Welch, chief investment officer at
SignatureFD in Atlanta.
"It's a result of the tug of war between inflation and
employment right now. And people just have different
perspectives on it."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 4.5 basis points to 4.186% and was up nearly
5 basis points on the week, putting it on track for a second
straight weekly climb.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose
1.1 basis points to 3.541% and was down 2.5 basis points on the
week.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 64.3 basis points after reaching
65.3, its widest since April 21.
The curve was showing a bear-steepener situation, where the
rise in long-term rates outpaces that of short-term rates, which
reflects market expectations for higher economic growth and
persistent inflation.
"What's happening is we're repricing that the economy is going
to be in pretty decent shape next year and so that's one of the
ways you can end up with kind of a steeper curve," said Welch.
The yield on the 30-year bond rose 5.9 basis
points to 4.849% and was up nearly 6 basis points on the week,
on pace for a second straight weekly advance.
Many market participants are expecting a boost to economic
growth next year as President Donald Trump's massive tax-cut and
spending bill takes effect.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.325% after closing at 2.32% on Thursday, its lowest level in a
week.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.272%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.