NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Tuesday after data showed labor costs increased more than
expected in the first quarter boosted by the rise in wages and
benefits, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will
delay the start of its easing cycle to later in the year.
In midday trading, the benchmark 10-year yield
rose 4.7 basis points (bps) to 4.659%. The yield on the 30-year
Treasury bond was up 3.2 bps at 4.767%.
On the short end of the curve, the U.S. two-year Treasury
yield, which typically reflects interest rate expectations, rose
to hit its highest since November at 5.03%. The yield was last
up 3.9 bps to 5.01%.
Data showed that the Employment Cost Index (ECI), the
broadest measure of labor costs, increased 1.2% last quarter
after rising by an unrevised 0.9% in the fourth quarter.
The report came just before a two-day Fed policy meeting, in
which the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates
unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.50% range. Bond investors are
expecting Fed Chair Jerome Powell to sound hawkish in his press
conference, likely noting that the central bank is no rush to
cut interest rates given persistent inflation and a still-robust
labor market.
The ECI data will add to the Fed's expected hawkishness.
"I feel like the Fed is really between a rock and a hard
place because the bar to hike further is really high, (which)
would put ... more pressure on government coffers and their
ability to pay that high interest expense," said Ayako Yoshioka,
senior portfolio manager, at Wealth Enhancement Group.
"At the same time inflation is just crazy. So I think their
preference is to just stay at the (current) level, but the
inaction is going to frustrate the markets."
Other economic reports were mixed.
The Case-Shiller 20-City index of home prices rose 0.61% in
February, which equates to a strong 7.6% annualized increase,
much higher than consensus expectations.
Both the ECI and the Case-Shiller data will not be welcome
by the Fed as it tries to slow the economy.
The Chicago PMI, a barometer of business activity in the
U.S. Midwest, and U.S. consumer confidence, on the other hand,
undershot expectations.
The Chicago PMI dropped to a 17-month low of 37.9 from 41.4
in March, with the current level just a notch above the two-year
low of 37.8 seen in November 2022, Action Economics said in its
blog after the data.
U.S. consumer confidence also worsened in April, falling to
its lowest in more than 1-1/2 years, a survey showed on Tuesday.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell
to 97.0 this month, the weakest level since July 2022, from a
downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast the index little changed at 104.0 from the
previously reported 104.7.
The weak data had little impact on the rates market, but it
did prevent Treasury yields from rising further.
Post-data, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 77% chance of
a rate cut in December, down from 90% a week ago, according the
CME's FedWatch tool. The market has also priced in just 31 bps
of easing this year, equivalent to one rate cut, compared with
six at the beginning of the year.