* Iran halts US talks, oil prices surge, market reacts to
geopolitical tensions
* US Treasury yields jump, 10-year note posts biggest
rise in two weeks
* Fed rate hike expectations increase as high oil prices
persist, Strait of Hormuz remains closed
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
climbed on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note on
track for its biggest daily jump in two weeks, after a report
that Iran was halting talks with the United States sent oil
prices sharply higher.
Iran's Tasnim news agency said Tehran's negotiating team is
stopping exchanges of messages with the United States through
mediators due to attacks on Lebanon, as diplomatic efforts to
end the three-month-old Iran war continue.
U.S. crude surged 7.82% to $94.19 a barrel and Brent
shot up to $97.30 per barrel, up 6.78% on the day
following the report.
"It's somewhat of a sharp reaction, but at the same time, I
kind of feel as if there is a somewhat of a longer barrier than
usual where the market kept thinking that this could get
resolved, this could get resolved, this could get resolved, and
then today's announcement is in a category of a commentary that
contradicted that," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at
Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 5.5 basis points to 4.508% and was on pace
for its biggest daily jump since a 13.6 basis point climb on May
15.
Yields fell last week on cautious optimism progress was
being made towards a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran,
which pushed oil prices down to their lowest level since
mid-April.
The yield on the 30-year bond added 2.8 basis
points to 5.021%.
MANUFACTURING DATA BEATS FORECASTS
Yields briefly extended gains after the Institute for Supply
Management said its manufacturing PMI advanced to 54.0 last
month, the highest reading since May 2022 and above the 53.0
estimate of economists polled by Reuters, from 52.7 in April.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 42.4 basis points.
Separately, the Commerce Department said construction
spending rose 0.4% after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in
March and compared with forecasts for a 0.2% gain.
"Today's economic data is going to be overshadowed by the
increased tension between Iran and the U.S.," said Barnes.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Federal Reserve, climbed 6.8 basis points to 4.082%.
The persistently high crude prices as the Strait of Hormuz
has remained closed has altered market expectations for the Fed
this year. Markets are now pricing in about a 60% chance for a
hike of at least 25 basis points at the central bank's December
meeting, up from about 45% on in the prior session, after
pricing in roughly two cuts at the start of the year.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.579% after closing at 2.53% on May 29.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.43%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4%
a year for the next decade.