NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Treasury yields edged
higher on Monday as the market awaits the auction of $176
billion of U.S. government debt this week and prepares for the
likelihood that the Federal Reserve and other central banks
begin to cut interest rates in coming months.
The Swiss National Bank last week cut rates, the first major
central bank to do so in a sign monetary policy would loosen as
global growth slows. The Bank of England also signaled a dovish
tilt, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut in June.
"The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, they're probably
all going to be cutting rates around mid year," said Tom di
Galoma, managing director and co-head of rates trading at BTIG,
who expects three cuts by the Fed this year.
"Very rarely do you see a central bank go one time. They
usually have in their mind that they going to cut more than
once," he said.
The two-year Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1.5 basis
points to 4.615%, while the yield on benchmark 10-year notes
was up 2 basis points at 4.238%.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said
late on Friday he now expects just one 25 basis-point rate cut
this year instead of the two he had projected, citing persistent
inflation and stronger-than-anticipated economic data.
The market now expects the Fed to cut 81 basis points by
December, more than early last week but about half what fed
funds futures showed earlier this year after Fed policymakers
pushed back on the notion of imminent rate cuts.
The Treasury plans to auction $66 billion of two-year notes
at 1 p.m. ET (1700 GMT). On Tuesday, $67 billion of five-year
notes are scheduled for sale, followed by $43 billion of
seven-year notes on Wednesday.
The bond market will close early at 2 p.m. on Thursday for
the Easter holiday.
The new supply is bolstering yields, di Galoma said, adding
that one of this week's auctions will likely be a problem.
"I don't think the two-year will have a problem getting
done. It'll either be the five-year or the seven-year."
The gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes
, seen as a recession harbinger when short-term
securities yield more than longer ones, was at -37.9 basis
points. The gap has been negative, or "inverted," since July
2022.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up
2.2 basis points to 4.414%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.483%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.353%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.6% a year for the next decade.