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TREASURIES-US yields rise ahead of $176 bln in Treasury debt this week
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TREASURIES-US yields rise ahead of $176 bln in Treasury debt this week
Mar 25, 2024 7:23 AM

NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Treasury yields edged

higher on Monday as the market awaits the auction of $176

billion of U.S. government debt this week and prepares for the

likelihood that the Federal Reserve and other central banks

begin to cut interest rates in coming months.

The Swiss National Bank last week cut rates, the first major

central bank to do so in a sign monetary policy would loosen as

global growth slows. The Bank of England also signaled a dovish

tilt, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut in June.

"The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, they're probably

all going to be cutting rates around mid year," said Tom di

Galoma, managing director and co-head of rates trading at BTIG,

who expects three cuts by the Fed this year.

"Very rarely do you see a central bank go one time. They

usually have in their mind that they going to cut more than

once," he said.

The two-year Treasury yield, which typically

moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1.5 basis

points to 4.615%, while the yield on benchmark 10-year notes

was up 2 basis points at 4.238%.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said

late on Friday he now expects just one 25 basis-point rate cut

this year instead of the two he had projected, citing persistent

inflation and stronger-than-anticipated economic data.

The market now expects the Fed to cut 81 basis points by

December, more than early last week but about half what fed

funds futures showed earlier this year after Fed policymakers

pushed back on the notion of imminent rate cuts.

The Treasury plans to auction $66 billion of two-year notes

at 1 p.m. ET (1700 GMT). On Tuesday, $67 billion of five-year

notes are scheduled for sale, followed by $43 billion of

seven-year notes on Wednesday.

The bond market will close early at 2 p.m. on Thursday for

the Easter holiday.

The new supply is bolstering yields, di Galoma said, adding

that one of this week's auctions will likely be a problem.

"I don't think the two-year will have a problem getting

done. It'll either be the five-year or the seven-year."

The gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes

, seen as a recession harbinger when short-term

securities yield more than longer ones, was at -37.9 basis

points. The gap has been negative, or "inverted," since July

2022.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up

2.2 basis points to 4.414%.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury

Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at

2.483%.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at

2.353%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about

2.6% a year for the next decade.

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