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Israel's strike on Iran raises oil prices, rekindles
inflation
concerns
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Analyst surprised by lack of safe-haven bid for US debt
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Says US yield curve may flatten if oil prices rise further
June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday
after Israel's strike on Iran, as markets absorbed a sudden
shock to commodity and stock prices, reversing some of the
declines after four days mainly in the red.
Israel said early on Friday it had struck Iranian nuclear
and military targets to block Tehran from developing atomic
weapons, and Iranian media and witnesses reported explosions
including at the country's main uranium enrichment facility.
The attack on multiple Iranian targets sparked a surge in oil
prices and rekindled inflation concerns, which overshadowed
economic and trade news earlier in the week that boosted demand
for U.S. sovereign debt and pushed yields lower.
Consumer data from the University of Michigan also showed an
unexpectedly large jump in sentiment and expectations. However,
markets appeared to show little interest in light of the
unfolding violence in the Middle East.
Earlier in the week, yields had fallen on
cooler-than-expected consumer inflation data, reported progress
in reaching a detente in the U.S.-China trade relations and
signs of deepening weakness in the U.S. labor market.
Slawomir Soroczynski, head of fixed income at Crown Agents
Investment Management in London, said the movement away from
U.S. debt instruments was a surprise under the circumstances.
"The price action in bonds does not show what one would
normally expect, which would be a safe-haven bid," he said.
"It is too early to call the full impact on bonds, but if
some energy forecasters' views start materializing and oil
prices go much higher, then we can see an impact on the shape of
the U.S. yield curve with aggressive flattening taking place
because short-term yields would rise more."
The so-called yield curve, which measures the spread between
yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. notes, is often used to gauge
market estimates of recession risk.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was last up 4.8 basis points to 4.405%. The yield
on the 30-year bond rose 4.7 basis points to
4.89%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 44.9 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose
4.6 basis points to 3.952%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.309% after closing at 2.284% on June 12.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.283%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.