(Updated at 0940 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on
Tuesday as fears that the U.S. economy is quickly entering a
recession were seen as overdone, while safe haven demand for
U.S. bonds also ebbed as stock markets recovered.
Yields tumbled to a more than one-year low on Monday as
investors repriced for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve following an unexpected increase in the unemployment
rate and fewer than expected job gains in July's employment
report on Friday.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that
many details in the jobs report leave "a little more room for
confidence that we're slowing but not falling off a cliff."
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also cautioned against
taking too much of a signal from the global market sell-off,
noting it stemmed in part from the Bank of Japan's decision last
week to raise rates, as well as increasing geopolitical tensions
in the Middle East.
"We had two shocks really in the last week," said Guy
LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott
in Philadelphia.
"The first being a downside economic shock evident from
Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and hints of deceleration in
the labor market. The second shock being a positioning shock
related to divergent central bank policy between the Bank of
Japan and the world's other major central banks," LeBas said.
"You put those two things together and you get a recipe for
some choppy action," LeBas added. But, "the idea of pricing in a
very high probability of an intermediate rate cut at a time when
the economy is still growing and there's no obvious crisis is
pretty goofy."
U.S. services sector activity on Monday also boosted
confidence in the economy as it rebounded from a four-year low
in July amid a bounce back in new orders and the first increase
in employment in six months.
Traders are now pricing in a 75% chance the Fed will cut
rates by 50 basis points at its next scheduled policy meeting in
September, and a 25% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. A 50
basis point cut was fully priced in on Monday, with a 75 basis
point cut also seen possible, according to the CME Group's
FedWatch Tool.
Traders had begun positioning for a possible emergency rate
cut before September.
Yields on interest rate sensitive two-year notes
were last up 5.3 basis points at 3.938%, after getting as low as
3.654% on Monday, the lowest since April 2023.
Benchmark 10-year note yields rose 3.9 basis
points to 3.822%, after reaching 3.667% on Monday, the lowest
since June 2023.
The gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
was last at minus 12 basis points, after reaching
1.50 basis points on Monday. It was the first time it has turned
positive since July 2022.
Japanese leaders rushed on Tuesday to assuage concerns about
the sharp swings in the country's financial markets, with the
prime minister urging calm and senior finance officials
convening an emergency meeting to discuss the global stock
market sell-off.
A sharp rally in the Japanese yen has prompted traders to
unwind popular trades that involved selling the Japanese
currency and buying U.S. assets.
Yields may be pulled higher by new Treasury supply this
week. The Treasury Department will sell $125 billion in
coupon-bearing debt, including $58 billion in three-year notes
on Tuesday, $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25
billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Safe haven demand could return, however, with rising
geopolitical tension in the Middle East posing a risk to
markets.
Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah launched a series of drone
and rocket attacks into northern Israel on Tuesday but warned
that its much-anticipated retaliation for Israel's killing of a
top commander last week was yet to come.