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TREASURIES-US yields rise further ahead of next week's Fed meeting
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TREASURIES-US yields rise further ahead of next week's Fed meeting
Mar 15, 2024 9:35 AM

WASHINGTON, March 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields

rose on Friday as a mixed batch of data signaled a still

resilient economy, boosting expectations for fewer interest rate

cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Benchmark 10-year notes yields were last up 1.6

basis points (bps) at 4.312%, marking the fifth consecutive day

of rising yields. U.S. two-year yields were 3.2 bps

higher at 4.723%. Both were at the highest since Feb. 27.

Friday's U.S. economic data showed U.S. industrial

production remained relatively flat in February, advancing only

0.1% from January, while manufacturing orders rose 0.8% in

February after being revised down sharply in January. The cost

of imported goods rose in February for the second month in a

row.

Yields extended gains on this week's news of

higher-than-expected inflation. These include February's

consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, which rose 0.4%, largely

driven by higher gasoline and shelter costs. Thursday's producer

price index (PPI) also exceeded forecasts, rising 0.6% in

February versus 0.3% expected.

Traders in Fed funds futures reduced bets that the Fed will

cut rates by June to 57.1%, from 62.5% on Thursday, according to

the CME Group's FedWatch tool. While the timing is in question,

traders still see at least two rate cuts by the end of 2024.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady when it meets

next week, with the market focused on policymakers' updated

economic and interest rate projections.

"Everything is gradually coming in the direction that the

Fed wants it to," said Michael Lorizio, senior fixed income

trader at Manulife Investment Management.

"Even though we did get some new information. I don't think

it's really changed the landscape all that much, which has to do

with the cumulative effect of data releases."

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and

10-year notes widened slightly to minus 41.3

basis points from minus 40.7 basis points on Tuesday.

New consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan

showed sentiment for the U.S. economy declined in February from

January. This put a slight damper on Treasury yields' rise, said

Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

The survey showed inflation expectations over one year

remained unchanged at 3%. But this increased to 2.7% from 2.4%

over a three-year span, and to 2.9% from 2.5% over five years.

"Treasuries were weaker in the set-up to the University of

Michigan print and since the data we've seen yields partially

retrace off the day's peaks," Lyngen wrote in a Friday note.

The yield on existing 30-year bonds remained relatively flat

on Friday, ticking up 0.8 bps to 4.446% on the day.

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