May 21 (Reuters) - Longer-dated Treasury yields rose on
Wednesday as investors continued to watch progress of a tax bill
in U.S. Congress and before the Treasury Department will auction
20-year bonds.
A deteriorating fiscal outlook has taken focus this week
after Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut the United States'
sovereign credit rating from the top "Aaa."
Yields at the longer end of the Treasury curve have been
rising steadily this month, driven by domestic fiscal concerns
and also worries that President Donald Trump's erratic economic
policies will not only stoke inflationary pressures but also
erode the appeal of U.S. assets. This week, yields in Japan and
the euro zone, too, have risen.
Some investors are concerned that the tax and spending bill
has fewer spending cuts than previously hoped.
The bill faces a critical stress test on Wednesday as
Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives try to overcome
internal divisions about cuts to the Medicaid health program and
tax breaks in high-cost coastal states.
Longer-dated yield increases have been due to "a combination
concern over inflation and fiscal" issues, with easier tax
policies being a newer factor in recent days, said Stephen Gola,
head of U.S. Treasuries Sales & Trading at StoneX Group.
Gola notes that hedge funds have been putting on steepener
trades, or bets that longer-dated yields will rise relative to
shorter-dated ones, which could be having an outsized impact on
market moves.
Foreign demand for a $16 billion sale of 20-year bonds will
be a focus on Wednesday as investors watch for any signs that
the worsening U.S. fiscal picture or the erratic implementation
of President Donald Trump's trade policies are denting foreign
investment in the United States.
Gola doesn't anticipate any large demand issues with
Wednesday's 20-year auction, noting that large tails are rare.
The bond auction is also a new issue, which typically see more
demand than reopenings.
Analysts at JPMorgan noted in a report on Tuesday that
foreign participation at April's 20-year auction held steady at
8% even as demand from end-users declined on the month.
Still, "given still elevated policy uncertainty amid a
worsening fiscal outlook," yields at the auction be higher than
the market is pricing heading into the sale, they said.
The Treasury will also sell $18 billion in 10-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities on Thursday.
The 20-year bond yield was last up 5.3 basis
points on the day at 5.0428%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.7 basis points to
4.007%.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 5
basis points to 4.531%.
The yield curve between 2-year and 10-year notes
steepened by around 1 basis point to 53 basis
points.
The 30-year bond yield rose 4.4 basis points to
5.0112% from 4.967% late on Tuesday.