(Updated in New York morning time)
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Producer prices rose more than anticipated in July
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Fed seen likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in
September
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New jobless claims fell last week
By Karen Brettell
Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday
after data showed that producer prices increased more than
expected in July, reducing the odds that the Federal Reserve may
cut rates by more than 25 basis points in September.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a near certainty that
the U.S. central bank will make a 25-basis-point cut next month
as the labor market slows. Relatively benign consumer price
inflation for July has added to this view.
In recent days traders had also begun to speculate that a larger
cut may be on the table if the jobs data for August is weak,
though the producer price data released on Thursday makes this
scenario less likely.
"It tempers some of those expectations or thoughts of the Fed
potentially moving in a larger than 25-basis-point increment as
their first move," said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist at
Wells Fargo in Charlotte.
"With PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) likely coming in
on a core basis about 0.3% at the end of this month, the Fed can
still very well cut 25 basis points in September. But there's
still a lot of data between now and then."
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 0.9% last month
after being unchanged in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of
Labor Statistics said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast the PPI would rise 0.2%.
Other data showed that the number of Americans filing new
applications for jobless benefits fell last week amid low
layoffs, but a reluctance by businesses to boost hiring because
of softening domestic demand could drive the unemployment rate
to 4.3% in August.
The 2-year Treasury note yield, which typically moves
in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last up 3.9
basis points on the day at 3.726%. It earlier reached 3.655%,
the lowest level since May 1.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose
2.2 basis points to 4.262%.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
flattened by around 2 basis points to 53.5 basis
points.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday said conditions now
appear more favorable for a rate cut, and that the Fed could
"start with 25 (basis points) and then accelerate."
Bessent said on Wednesday that "there's a very good chance," of
a 50-basis-point cut at the U.S. central bank's September 16-17
policy meeting.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, meanwhile, pushed back
against the need for a 50-basis-point cut, saying that "I'm
worried it would send off an urgency signal that I don't feel
about the strength of the labor market."