NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Yields on U.S. Treasuries
rose on Monday as hopes of a China and U.S. trade deal boosted
risk appetite and investors worried about U.S. economy data
availability and its effect on future interest rates.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was up 2.3 basis points in late morning trading,
at 4.02%. Bonds did not react as positively as equities to the
signs of progress in the talks. "It may be an effect of the
risk-on movement that reduces demand for safer assets, but also
the lack of data and also how it will affect the interest rate
trajectory", said Tom Di Galoma, managing director at Mischler
Financial Group.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, rose up to 3.2 basis points in the morning, but pared gains
to 2.8 basis points, at 3.512% after the Treasury auctioned $69
billion of these notes.
The large supply available, with another $70 billion auction
of 5-year notes, may also be a factor in rising yields, Galoma
added.
Investors see a 25-basis point rate cut in the Federal Open
Market Committee meeting on Wednesday as certain, specially
after the September CPI release on Friday. Data showed pressures
of import tariffs pass-throughs were so far weaker than
expected, BMO analysts led by Ian Lyngen said in a note to
clients on Monday.
The interest rate trajectory through December looks less
certain as the prevailing uncertainties won't be resolved in the
near-term, they added. Even if the government reopens in
November, the effect on data availability could extend well into
2026.
In this context, the U.S. consumer confidence data to be
released on Tuesday by the Conference board will be watched more
closely than usual. The yield on the 30-year bond
rose 0.5 basis points to 4.591%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 50.4 basis points.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.303%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.