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TREASURIES-US yields rise, tracking stocks, after jobless claims data
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TREASURIES-US yields rise, tracking stocks, after jobless claims data
Sep 19, 2024 10:37 PM

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields

advanced on the longer end of the curve on Thursday, in line

with gains in stocks, as better-than-expected jobless claims

data further stoked global risk appetite, a day after the

Federal Reserve announced a jumbo interest rate cut.

The yield curve, a widely-tracked indicator about the

economic outlook, also rose or steepened, with the spread

between the two-year and 10-year yields hitting 14 basis points

(bps), the widest gap since June 2022. It was last at 13.8 bps

, compared with 6.1 bps late on Wednesday.

The curve is also described as a bear steepener, a scenario

in which the rise in longer-dated yields is higher than those on

the front end, which suggests that market participants are

expecting a pick-up in inflation expectations at some point down

the road.

While a steepening curve typically foreshadows more upcoming

rate cuts, that is true in a bull steepener when short-term

rates are falling faster than those on longer maturities. That

is not the case on Thursday.

"The curve steepening is the most obvious trend that's been

in place since the FOMC meeting," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed

income strategist at Janney Capital Management, referring to the

U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market

Committee.

"And an aggressive Fed - coupled with the potential for

either reflationary economic growth or slight uptick in

inflation expectations - are driving the curve steeper."

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit

its highest level in about two weeks at 3.768% and was last up

4.1 bps at 3.726%. A better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims

report did a lot to boost those yields, with the data showing

the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment

benefits dropped to a four-month low.

The U.S. 30-year yield also rose to roughly a

two-week high and last traded up 5 bps at 4.057%.

On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield

fell 1.5 bps to 3.588%, after earlier trading higher. That yield

was pressured by data showing existing home sales fell to their

lowest level since 2023.

The bond market is still experiencing the impact of the

Fed's decision on Wednesday to cut rates by 50 basis points,

which tracked market expectations but was out of step with the

majority of economists polled by Reuters who anticipated a 25-bp

cut.

In a statement, the FOMC said it had gained greater

confidence that inflation was under control, while Fed Chair

Jerome Powell said in a press conference that the central bank

would decide on the appropriate pace of future rate cuts.

After the rate cut decision, market participants are more

focused on the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election and how its

outcome could determine the course of rates.

"We believe the outcome of upcoming U.S. elections will do

far more to dictate the pace and ultimate magnitude of rate cuts

than any potential policy mistake over a delta of 25 or 50 bps

on the Fed decision," said Andrzej Skiba, head of the BlueBay

U.S. fixed income team at RBC Global Asset Management.

Fed funds futures have priced in about 74 bps of cuts by the

end of this year and 195 bps of cuts by September 2025.

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