WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
advanced on the longer end of the curve on Thursday, in line
with gains in stocks, as better-than-expected jobless claims
data further stoked global risk appetite, a day after the
Federal Reserve announced a jumbo interest rate cut.
The yield curve, a widely-tracked indicator about the
economic outlook, also rose or steepened, with the spread
between the two-year and 10-year yields hitting 14 basis points
(bps), the widest gap since June 2022. It was last at 13.8 bps
, compared with 6.1 bps late on Wednesday.
The curve is also described as a bear steepener, a scenario
in which the rise in longer-dated yields is higher than those on
the front end, which suggests that market participants are
expecting a pick-up in inflation expectations at some point down
the road.
While a steepening curve typically foreshadows more upcoming
rate cuts, that is true in a bull steepener when short-term
rates are falling faster than those on longer maturities. That
is not the case on Thursday.
"The curve steepening is the most obvious trend that's been
in place since the FOMC meeting," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed
income strategist at Janney Capital Management, referring to the
U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market
Committee.
"And an aggressive Fed - coupled with the potential for
either reflationary economic growth or slight uptick in
inflation expectations - are driving the curve steeper."
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit
its highest level in about two weeks at 3.768% and was last up
4.1 bps at 3.726%. A better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims
report did a lot to boost those yields, with the data showing
the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment
benefits dropped to a four-month low.
The U.S. 30-year yield also rose to roughly a
two-week high and last traded up 5 bps at 4.057%.
On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield
fell 1.5 bps to 3.588%, after earlier trading higher. That yield
was pressured by data showing existing home sales fell to their
lowest level since 2023.
The bond market is still experiencing the impact of the
Fed's decision on Wednesday to cut rates by 50 basis points,
which tracked market expectations but was out of step with the
majority of economists polled by Reuters who anticipated a 25-bp
cut.
In a statement, the FOMC said it had gained greater
confidence that inflation was under control, while Fed Chair
Jerome Powell said in a press conference that the central bank
would decide on the appropriate pace of future rate cuts.
After the rate cut decision, market participants are more
focused on the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election and how its
outcome could determine the course of rates.
"We believe the outcome of upcoming U.S. elections will do
far more to dictate the pace and ultimate magnitude of rate cuts
than any potential policy mistake over a delta of 25 or 50 bps
on the Fed decision," said Andrzej Skiba, head of the BlueBay
U.S. fixed income team at RBC Global Asset Management.
Fed funds futures have priced in about 74 bps of cuts by the
end of this year and 195 bps of cuts by September 2025.