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TREASURIES-US yields slip as traders wait on fresh data
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TREASURIES-US yields slip as traders wait on fresh data
Nov 22, 2024 7:08 AM

NEW YORK, Nov 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields

slipped on Friday as investors awaited fresh data that will

offer further clues on Federal Reserve policy and continued to

assess how the policies of the Donald Trump administration will

affect the economy next year.

The next major clues on the economy will be November's jobs

and inflation data due in early December. Jobless claims fell to

a seven-month low last week, which indicates that employment

remains strong.

However, "the trajectory of inflation seems to have a touch

of perkiness right now. It's probably just month-to-month noise,

but nonetheless I think that's the next potential risk for

higher yields," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at

Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

Treasury yields have risen over the past two months as data

shows the U.S. economy remains more resilient than previously

expected.

Investors betting on President-elect Trump's victory, with

Republicans also taking control of Congress, added to the move.

Trump is expected to introduce policies that boost growth, while

analysts say immigration reform and tariffs are also likely to

increase inflation.

The Fed is expected to slow its pace of cuts as it gets

closer to the so-called neutral rate, which is when the economy

is at full employment and inflation is stable.

The market is now pricing in a 60% probability the Fed will

cut rates by 25 basis points in December, and only a 13% chance

that it would be followed by another 25 basis point reduction in

January, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes were last

down 2.2 basis points at 4.41%. They reached 4.505% last Friday,

the highest since May 31.

Two-year yields fell 0.2 basis points to 4.347%.

They hit 4.379% last Friday, the highest since July 31.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes

flattened by around 1 basis point to 6 basis

points.

Geopolitical tensions are also in focus as the Ukraine-

Russia war escalates and yields can be pulled lower on demand

for safe haven U.S. government debt.

The Kremlin said on Friday that a strike on Ukraine using a

newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile was a message to

the West that Moscow will respond harshly to any "reckless"

Western actions in support of Ukraine.

Trading volumes next week are likely to decline heading into

Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday when markets will be closed. The

bond market will also have an early close at 2 p.m. EST (1900

GMT) on Friday.

That may mean the U.S. Treasury Department will need to pay

higher yields for auctions of short- and intermediate-dated

debt.

The government will sell $69 billion in two-year notes on

Monday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday and $44

billion in seven-year notes on Wednesday, in addition to $28

billion in two-year floating rate notes on Tuesday.

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