(Adds analyst comment, details of JOLTS report, updates yields)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
dropped on Wednesday after data showed job openings fell in
July, reflecting a softening labor market that reinforced
expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve
later this month.
In late morning trading, U.S. two-year yields, which are
tied to interest rate policy, slid 5.4 basis points (bps) to
3.604%. The benchmark 10-year yield also fell, down
5.8 bps at 4.217%.
The declines came after the Bureau of Labor Statistics'
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS showed that job
openings, a measure of labor demand, fell to 7.181 million by
the last day of July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
7.38 million unfilled jobs.
Hiring increased 41,000 to 5.308 million in July. Layoffs
rose 12,000 to 1.808 million.
"Once again, there is not very much wrong here. In short,
no sign of recession or even an economic slowdown can be found
in the headlines of this report," wrote Carl Weinberg, chief
U.S. economist, at High Frequency Economics in a research note
after the data.
"Openings are decreasing on trend. So what? The decline is
slight. The levels are still high and above pre-pandemic
levels."
U.S. 30-year bond yields sank 7.1 bps to 4.898%
, after earlier hitting 5% earlier in the session,
the highest in about 1-1/2 months.
The yield curve flattened after the jobs data, with the gap
between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to 60.9 bps
, compared with 62 bps late on Tuesday. Earlier on
Wednesday, the curve hit 63.8 bps its widest spread since April.
The curve showed a bull flattening scenario as a result of
long term interest rates falling faster than those on the short
end of the curve, which for now reflects a slight decline in
inflation expectations. This often precedes the Fed cutting
interest rates.
U.S. rate futures now widely expect the Fed to lower rates
this month, pricing in a 96% chance of a 25-bp cut at the end of
the two-day policy meeting on September 17, according to CME
Group's FedWatch tool. That was at 92% late on Tuesday.
Traders have also priced in about 59 bps of easing this
year, up from 56 bps on Tuesday.