*
Fed's Powell says "time has come" to cut rates
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U.S. rate futures price in higher odds of 50 bps cut in
Sept
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U.S. 2-year, 10-year yield on pace for biggest daily fall
in
three weeks
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U.S. 2/10 yield curve bull steepens as easing priced in
(Adds new comment, Fed's Goolsbee's remarks, graphic, updates
prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields sank
across the board on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell, in prepared remarks, delivered his strongest signal yet
that interest rates are coming down most likely at the next
policy meeting in September.
The benchmark 10-year yield fell 6.1 basis points (bps) to
3.801%. It was on track to post its largest daily
decline in nearly three weeks.
U.S. 30-year yields slid 4.2 bps to 4.094%.
On the short end of the curve, the two-year yield, which
reflects interest rate expectations, dropped 9.7 bps to 3.913%
, on pace for its biggest daily fall since Aug 2nd.
In a highly-anticipated speech, Powell said "the time has
come" for the Fed to cut interest rates amid rising risks to the
job market even as inflation was in reach of the U.S. central
bank's 2% target. He spoke at the Kansas City Fed's annual
economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
"The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace
of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook,
and the balance of risks," Powell said.
Traders increased bets for a bigger rate cut in September
following Powell's speech, with the fed funds futures now
pricing in a 37% chance of a 50-bp cut next month, up from about
25% late on Thursday. Traders are also pricing in about 106 bps
of cuts by the end of the year.
"Powell very confidently ratified what the market is pricing
in...It was also very clear from his speech that there's more
focus on the labor market more than inflation going forward,"
said Vishal Khanduja, co-head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at
Morgan Stanley Investment Management in Boston.
He added that the disinflationary trend in the economy
remained intact, with inflation heading towards the Fed's 2%
inflation target
"Until now, the question was: when is the first cut,
with the cut being very data-dependent. Now I think they're
tying the data dependence to the pace and magnitude of cuts
going forward. That's a slight shift there."
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who is not a
voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, also added
to Powell's dovish rhetoric on Friday. He said monetary policy
is
quite tight
and is no longer aligned with current economic conditions.
(Powell's) speech was cautiously optimistic, suggesting
that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the target
without necessitating a sharp increase in unemployment," wrote
Dan Siluk, head of global short duration and liquidity at Janus
Henderson, in emailed comments.
"This may reassure investors about the potential for a
soft landing. Risk markets - equities and credit - are firmer
after the speech."
Following Powell's unequivocal signal, the U.S. yield curve
bull-steepened, or narrowed its inversion, with the yield spread
between two- and 10-year notes at falling to as low as minus 9.9
bps, the tightest gap in a week, and down from minus 15.8 bps
late on Thursday. The curve briefly turned positive on Aug. 5.
A bull steepener, a scenario in which short-term rates are
falling more steeply than the long end, typically foreshadows a
Fed easing cycle. The belief is that yields on the front end of
the curve have peaked as the expected next move by the Fed is to
cut rates.