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By Tatiana Bautzer and Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. 10-year Treasury
yields were flat to marginally higher on Tuesday after inflation
in the world's largest economy grew slower than expected last
month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to take its
time resuming its easing cycle.
The inflation data showed limited immediate impact from
the Trump administration's sharp tariff rises announced early
last month. Analysts, however, said prices are likely to pick up
in coming CPI readings as they will show the period during which
tariffs went into effect.
The consumer price index increased 0.2% last month
after dipping 0.1% in March, which was the first decline since
May 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI
would rise 0.3%. In the 12 months through April, the CPI climbed
2.3% after rising 2.4% in the 12 months through March.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the
CPI rose 0.2% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. The
so-called core CPI inflation increased 2.8% on a year-on-year
basis in April after rising 2.8% in March.
Treasury yields slipped slightly after the CPI release. By
late morning trading, the 10-year Treasury yield
was up two basis points (bps) to 4.477%. The two-year
yield, was slightly down at 3.994%.
Analysts noted that even as the headline number was
0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, specific goods such as furniture
and video and audio products showed high price increases.
"The report basically indicates that the Fed needs to be
very cautious and that the stand that they have taken is
probably the right course, for now," said Brian Jacobsen, chief
economist at Annex Wealth Management.
Analysts expect the Federal Reserve will not cut
interest rates until later in the year and potentially cut
twice. The first 0.25 basis point cut is expected for the
September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
After the U.S. and China agreed a 90-day reprieve on
tariffs on Monday, showing the world's two largest economies'
wish to avoid a trade war, markets reduced expectations of a
U.S. recession or stagflation scenario.
"The CPI was softer than expected, which is good news, but
markets are still cautious and looking for clarity on the longer
term policy path," said Societe Generale's head of U.S. rates
strategy Subadra Rajappa. She noted stocks got more of a
positive momentum from the inflation report than the bond
market.
Markets are beginning to look at the potential results
of budget discussions in Congress. Republicans in the U.S. House
of Representatives on Tuesday will kick off public debate on
major pillars of President Donald Trump's tax cut and budget
legislation. Congress' bipartisan Joint Tax Committee estimates
the tax cuts would cost $3.72 trillion.