(Updates at 1500 ET)
By Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Thursday as economic data did not upend expectations the
Federal Reserve will begin a gradual decrease in interest rates
next week, and as the European Central Bank cut rates but gave
little clarity on future easing.
U.S. producer prices increased slightly more than expected
in August, but the trend remained consistent with subsiding
inflation. On the labor market side, meanwhile, data on Thursday
showed the number of Americans filing new applications for
unemployment benefits increased marginally last week.
The data did not significantly alter investor expectations
of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank
at its Sept. 17 to 18 rate-setting meeting. Bets for a bigger,
half-percentage point cut were curbed on Wednesday when consumer
price data showed inflation remains somewhat sticky.
"The initial (jobless) claims were benign as far as any
relationship to movement in bond prices," said Lou Brien, market
strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
Traders in rates futures were assigning a 29% chance to a
50-bps cut next week, more than on Wednesday, with the consensus
remaining largely on a 25-bps reduction adjustment, CME Group
data showed.
"The market has been expecting the Fed to move next week and
they're likely to move," said Erik Aarts, senior fixed income
strategist at Touchstone Investments. "Some in the marketplace
thought there could be a larger cut next week; we don't think
so, we're firmly in the camp of getting 25 basis point as the
start of rate cuts," he said.
U.S. bond giant PIMCO said in a note on Thursday it expects
the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points three times this year,
as resilience in the U.S. economy points to a gradual descent to
a less restrictive policy.
Meanwhile on Thursday the European Central Bank cut its
deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.50%, as expected, following a
similar cut in June. But bets on ECB rate cuts for the rest of
the year were pared back, leading to higher euro zone government
bond yields.
This likely helped push U.S. yields higher, said
Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial.
"We also think there's been a lot of rate cuts priced
into the US markets already, and we think the Fed is going cut
rates only 25 basis point next week ... so rates are probably
going to trend higher into the Fed meeting," he added.
WEAK AUCTION
On the supply side, a $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond
auction on Thursday met lukewarm demand. The bonds were sold at
a high yield of 4.015%, about one and a half basis point above
the market at the bidding deadline.
This came after
U.S. budget deficit
data released by the Treasury Department showing the fiscal
2024 deficit through August was up 24% from a $1.525 trillion
deficit in the comparable year-ago period, with annual interest
costs on the public debt topping $1 trillion for the first time.
"The 30-year was a weak auction but it's possible we
start to see a string of weak auctions given the amount of
Treasury debt that has to come to market to fill these budget
deficits," said Gillum.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields added nearly
three basis points to 3.681%. Two-year yields, which
tend to more closely reflect expectations of changes in monetary
policy, were last at 3.649%, a touch higher than on Wednesday.
On the long end, 30-year yields rose by three
basis points to about 4%.
The curve comparing 10- and two-year yields,
closely watched by investors for its signals on the economic
outlook, steepened to three basis points from less than one on
Wednesday.