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TREASURIES-US yields steady with gradual start to rate cuts in view
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TREASURIES-US yields steady with gradual start to rate cuts in view
Sep 13, 2024 1:17 PM

(Updates at 1500 ET)

By Davide Barbuscia

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose

on Thursday as economic data did not upend expectations the

Federal Reserve will begin a gradual decrease in interest rates

next week, and as the European Central Bank cut rates but gave

little clarity on future easing.

U.S. producer prices increased slightly more than expected

in August, but the trend remained consistent with subsiding

inflation. On the labor market side, meanwhile, data on Thursday

showed the number of Americans filing new applications for

unemployment benefits increased marginally last week.

The data did not significantly alter investor expectations

of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank

at its Sept. 17 to 18 rate-setting meeting. Bets for a bigger,

half-percentage point cut were curbed on Wednesday when consumer

price data showed inflation remains somewhat sticky.

"The initial (jobless) claims were benign as far as any

relationship to movement in bond prices," said Lou Brien, market

strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.

Traders in rates futures were assigning a 29% chance to a

50-bps cut next week, more than on Wednesday, with the consensus

remaining largely on a 25-bps reduction adjustment, CME Group

data showed.

"The market has been expecting the Fed to move next week and

they're likely to move," said Erik Aarts, senior fixed income

strategist at Touchstone Investments. "Some in the marketplace

thought there could be a larger cut next week; we don't think

so, we're firmly in the camp of getting 25 basis point as the

start of rate cuts," he said.

U.S. bond giant PIMCO said in a note on Thursday it expects

the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points three times this year,

as resilience in the U.S. economy points to a gradual descent to

a less restrictive policy.

Meanwhile on Thursday the European Central Bank cut its

deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.50%, as expected, following a

similar cut in June. But bets on ECB rate cuts for the rest of

the year were pared back, leading to higher euro zone government

bond yields.

This likely helped push U.S. yields higher, said

Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial.

"We also think there's been a lot of rate cuts priced

into the US markets already, and we think the Fed is going cut

rates only 25 basis point next week ... so rates are probably

going to trend higher into the Fed meeting," he added.

WEAK AUCTION

On the supply side, a $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond

auction on Thursday met lukewarm demand. The bonds were sold at

a high yield of 4.015%, about one and a half basis point above

the market at the bidding deadline.

This came after

U.S. budget deficit

data released by the Treasury Department showing the fiscal

2024 deficit through August was up 24% from a $1.525 trillion

deficit in the comparable year-ago period, with annual interest

costs on the public debt topping $1 trillion for the first time.

"The 30-year was a weak auction but it's possible we

start to see a string of weak auctions given the amount of

Treasury debt that has to come to market to fill these budget

deficits," said Gillum.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields added nearly

three basis points to 3.681%. Two-year yields, which

tend to more closely reflect expectations of changes in monetary

policy, were last at 3.649%, a touch higher than on Wednesday.

On the long end, 30-year yields rose by three

basis points to about 4%.

The curve comparing 10- and two-year yields,

closely watched by investors for its signals on the economic

outlook, steepened to three basis points from less than one on

Wednesday.

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