(Updates to late-morning US trading)
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US Treasury yields rise as bond-buying frenzy slows
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Fed expected to cut interest rates amid weak labor market
data
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Traders await CPI report ahead of Fed's policy meeting
By Alden Bentley
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Tuesday as a long-end bond-buying frenzy abated, but briefly
dipped after a benchmark jobs data revision came in on the
weaker side and gave more weight to the weakening labor market
outlook that already had traders boosting expectations for more
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
The U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12
months through March than previously estimated, compared with
estimates from economists that had ranged between 400,000 and 1
million jobs, suggesting that job growth was already stalling
before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports.
That data followed a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week that
showed a gain of only 22,000 jobs in August, which lifted bond
prices and sent the 10-year and 30-year yields to their lowest
levels in several months.
"Certainly the Fed is already geared to cut rates based on
weaker jobs, the job situation as a whole. This does nothing to
dissuade the Fed from moving 25 basis points," said Paul Nolte,
senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest
in Chicago.
"It's a little bit more than expected. We don't know month
by month and won't for a few more months yet, but it points out
that labor is weak."
Signs of labor market weakness have all but guaranteed that the
Fed will cut rates for the first time since December at its
September 16-17 meeting. The question now is how much it will
cut by and how aggressive it will be in the face of mounting
evidence that its mandate to promote employment is shaping up as
an equal challenge to its other imperative of controlling
inflation.
Markets are fully pricing in a cut of at least 25 basis points
next week, with expectations for an outsized 50-basis-point cut
at about 8%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
But traders are also reluctant to get too far ahead of
themselves before the release on Thursday of the Consumer Price
Index report. The Fed's decision could become complicated if the
CPI report comes in much hotter than the 0.3% expected by
economists polled by Reuters and the 0.2% rise in July.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 2.8 basis points to 4.074% after briefly
hitting a session low of 4.04% after the benchmark revision jobs
data. The yield on the 30-year bond climbed 3.7
basis points to 4.727%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 54.3 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, gained 3.4 basis points to 3.529%.