NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
briefly ticked lower early on Friday after a report showed
producer prices were flat in September, avoiding an inflation
curve ball for the Federal Reserve before it must decide how
much more to ease at its next meeting.
The unchanged reading in the Producer Price Index for final
demand last month followed an unrevised 0.2% gain in August, the
Labor Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast the PPI edging up 0.1%. In the 12 months through
September, the PPI increased 1.8% after climbing 1.9% in August.
The data followed news on Thursday that consumer prices rose
slightly more than expected in September, lifted by higher food
costs. The two reports supported views that the Federal Reserve
would cut interest rates again, after September's aggressive
50-basis point reduction.
Yields soon after reversed. The yield on benchmark U.S.
10-year notes was up 2.2 basis points from late
Thursday at 4.116%.
The 30-year bond yield rose 3.4 basis points to
4.4193% and the 2-year note yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, was off 1.6 basis
points at 3.983%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 13.1 basis points, steeper than
late Thursday's +10.2 bp.
Based on the fed funds futures term structure,
traders see an 82% chance of a 25 bps ease in the policy rate,
which has been in a 4.75%-5.0% target range since the Fed cut
last month, at the central bank's November meeting. The odds for
a quarter-point cut were 85% late Thursday.