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TREASURIES-Yields droop on hopes for Fed ease as big Treasury auctions loom
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TREASURIES-Yields droop on hopes for Fed ease as big Treasury auctions loom
May 7, 2024 8:05 AM

NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Treasury yields slipped on

Tuesday, with traders focused on absorbing $125 billion in new

supply this week, while a parade of Federal Reserve officials is

queued up to speak on prospects for a 2024 policy pivot.

The benchmark 10-year yield slipped to a near three week

low, continuing its fall last week after with Friday's release

of a smaller than expected rise in April nonfarm payrolls. That

juiced a rally in Treasuries after the Federal Open Market

Committee said the recent uptick in inflation and economic

growth were unlikely to derail rate cuts this year.

The question now is, are yields enticing enough for a solid

reception for the Treasury's auction of $58 billion in 3-year

notes later in the day, followed by $42 billion in 10-years on

Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday?

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell

4.6 basis points from late Monday to 4.4427%. It fell below

Friday's bottom after the jobs report, marking a new low yield

since April 10 of 4.435%.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in

step with interest rate expectations, fell 0.4 basis points to

4.8178%. On Friday it fell to 4.716%, the lowest since April 5.

"When the 2-year was over 5% and the 10-year was nearly at

4.70%, there was a good interest in the Treasury market. Now

that were down 25-30 basis points there is less interest in it,"

said Stan Shipley, fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI in

New York.

"I don't think the auctions we get this week are going to be

nearly as robust as the last ones we had," he said. "And from

what we hear from clients they are not as enthusiastic about

this either."

The calendar of economic indicators is light this week. So

the waiting game is on ahead of the April reads on producer

prices next Tuesday and especially the widely watched CPI number

next Wednesday, which will provide insight on whether inflation

has begun to come down toward the Fed's 2% target rate.

Meanwhile numerous Fed officials will be on record this

week, including Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President

Neel Kashkari, who is part of a moderated conversation on the

economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global

Conference.

On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said getting

inflation under control is a "stubborn road," and the Fed will

need to get demand down to finish the inflation fight. New York

Fed President John Williams told the Milken Conference that the

Fed will eventually cut interest rates, neither remark moved the

needle much for Treasuries.

The 30-year bond yield was down 4.5 basis points

at 4.5964%.

The yield-curve spread between yields on two- and 10-year

Treasury notes, closely watched as an indicator of

economic expectations, was at a negative 37.1 basis points, more

inverted than -33.9 bp late on Monday.

In the fed funds futures market, traders are pricing in a

66% chance the Fed will pivot in September with a 25 basis point

cut at that meeting, unchanged from Monday. The second cut is

priced for December.

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