NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Treasury yields slipped on
Tuesday, with traders focused on absorbing $125 billion in new
supply this week, while a parade of Federal Reserve officials is
queued up to speak on prospects for a 2024 policy pivot.
The benchmark 10-year yield slipped to a near three week
low, continuing its fall last week after with Friday's release
of a smaller than expected rise in April nonfarm payrolls. That
juiced a rally in Treasuries after the Federal Open Market
Committee said the recent uptick in inflation and economic
growth were unlikely to derail rate cuts this year.
The question now is, are yields enticing enough for a solid
reception for the Treasury's auction of $58 billion in 3-year
notes later in the day, followed by $42 billion in 10-years on
Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday?
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell
4.6 basis points from late Monday to 4.4427%. It fell below
Friday's bottom after the jobs report, marking a new low yield
since April 10 of 4.435%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations, fell 0.4 basis points to
4.8178%. On Friday it fell to 4.716%, the lowest since April 5.
"When the 2-year was over 5% and the 10-year was nearly at
4.70%, there was a good interest in the Treasury market. Now
that were down 25-30 basis points there is less interest in it,"
said Stan Shipley, fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI in
New York.
"I don't think the auctions we get this week are going to be
nearly as robust as the last ones we had," he said. "And from
what we hear from clients they are not as enthusiastic about
this either."
The calendar of economic indicators is light this week. So
the waiting game is on ahead of the April reads on producer
prices next Tuesday and especially the widely watched CPI number
next Wednesday, which will provide insight on whether inflation
has begun to come down toward the Fed's 2% target rate.
Meanwhile numerous Fed officials will be on record this
week, including Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President
Neel Kashkari, who is part of a moderated conversation on the
economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global
Conference.
On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said getting
inflation under control is a "stubborn road," and the Fed will
need to get demand down to finish the inflation fight. New York
Fed President John Williams told the Milken Conference that the
Fed will eventually cut interest rates, neither remark moved the
needle much for Treasuries.
The 30-year bond yield was down 4.5 basis points
at 4.5964%.
The yield-curve spread between yields on two- and 10-year
Treasury notes, closely watched as an indicator of
economic expectations, was at a negative 37.1 basis points, more
inverted than -33.9 bp late on Monday.
In the fed funds futures market, traders are pricing in a
66% chance the Fed will pivot in September with a 25 basis point
cut at that meeting, unchanged from Monday. The second cut is
priced for December.