(Updates as of 1428 ET)
By Alden Bentley and Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) -
Treasury yields slipped on Thursday amid relief that all
$125 billion in new note and bond supply this week was absorbed
smoothly, allowing traders to focus on pivotal inflation reports
for the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer rate strategy.
The Treasury sold $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday,
at a high yield of 4.635%, lower than where the yield on the
screens was at the close of competitive bidding, indicating
strong demand.
A bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41 was higher than the market
was expecting, according to Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates
strategy at Societe Generale, New York.
The 30-year yield fell after the auction,
showing the result was well received, and was last down 1.5
basis points from late Wednesday at 4.6166%.
"We actually had a pretty decent 30-year auction, all
things considered," Rajappa said. "This whole week has been
pretty much about Treasury supply and corporate supply. It's a
wait-and-see game until CPI next week."
The government got solid interest at a $42 billion
auction of 10-year notes on Wednesday and a $58 billion sale of
three-year notes on Tuesday.
The April Producer Price Index report comes on Tuesday,
and the closely followed Consumer Price Index next Wednesday.
Combined they will provide insight on whether inflation has
resumed its downward trend toward the Fed's 2% target rate.
"There is a reason the CPI has supplanted the employment
report as the biggest market mover on the economic calendar,"
said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in a daily
client note. "As we try to anticipate how the Fed conversation
will evolve next, it will depend more than anything on what CPI
inflation does next Wednesday."
In early trade, benchmark yields briefly dipped after
news that Initial claims for state unemployment benefits
increased 22,000 to 231,000 last week. That was higher than the
215,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters and could be
good news for the Fed as further evidence that inflationary
labor-market tightness is ebbing.
"If you just read it on the surface, it looks like one of
the uglier numbers that we've seen in the last several months,"
said Thomas Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies in New
York, but "volatility around the first of the month is not
unusual."
Yields fell hard on Friday after payrolls for April came
in below expectations. That followed the Federal Open Market
Committee meeting, where it held rates steady but said it still
expects a rate cut to be its next move even as inflation remains
stubbornly high.
Traders are pricing in the probability of two 25 basis point
cuts this year, with the first expected in September, but any
cuts will likely depend on whether inflation can resume its
easing trend.
The benchmark 10-year note yield was last off
2.6 basis points at 4.457%. On Tuesday it hit 4.42%, the lowest
since April 10
Two-year yields, which typically move in step
with interest rate expectations, fell 3.2 basis points to
4.8112%, remaining in a range since Friday's fall to 4.806%,
their lowest since April 5.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and
10-year yields deepened more than a basis point
to minus 35.6 basis points.